Dino Babers made a splash with his passion and inspiration, will it translate to improvements on the field?
Syracuse Orange
2016 Record: 4-8 (2-6, ACC Atlantic)
OFFENSE
2016 Review/Scheme: Syracuse broke from tradition when they hired Dino Babers, an air raid guy who had worked under Art Briles at Baylor before landing head coaching jobs at Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green, where he took over for current Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson. Traditionally, Syracuse has employed “ground and pound” coaches who favored a strong running game and while Babers does not abandon the run game quite like, say, Mike Leach, he ran a much more pass-heavy system than we’ve seen at Syracuse. It was obvious the Orange were trying to break from tradition, but also trying to gain some traction with fans and recruits by running a fun, up-tempo offense.
The results in year one were mixed. Syracuse was definitely more fun to watch under Babers, but against better defenses, the offense still struggled. Seven opponents held the Orange to 28 points or less. That being said, Syracuse put up 31 in an upset of Virginia Tech and hung 61 on Pitt (more on that game later). In Babers’ previous stops at EIU and Bowling Green, he has seen a jump in offensive production in year two and that could very well occur at Syracuse as the Orange have one of the most experienced teams, in terms of returning production, in the country.
Quarterbacks: The old coaching staff did Babers a serious solid in recruiting now-junior QB Eric Dungey to Syracuse. Dungey (2679 yds, 65%, 15 TDs, 7 INTs, 293 yds rushing, 6 TDs) has all the skills necessary to run this type of offense. He is big, strong, accurate, and athletic. For a middling team like Syracuse, Dungey is a guy who can change the trajectory of their program while he is on campus. The problem, though, has been that Dungey has yet to make it through a full season without getting injured. He was limited to 9 games last year and while his backups have experience, there is a huge drop-off in talent from Dungey to the next guy. If he can stay healthy, he could be one of the best QBs in the conference.
Because of Dungey’s health, Babers is probably happy he has an old hat like senior Zach Mahoney to turn to if needed. Mahoney (943 yds, 61%, 8 TDs, 4 INTs) does not have the raw physical ability of Dungey, but he is a smart, heady player who won’t make a lot of mistakes. He won’t make a lot of plays to wow you either, but he is a competent backup. True freshman Tommy Devito, a high 3 or low 4* recruit depending on the service, is the future of the program, but will likely redshirt unless absolutely needed.
Running Backs: One of the underrated aspects of some air raid teams, and Baylor would fall in this category, is that they actually will run the ball. Babers did not rely on the ground game much last year, but he has his top two runners back and a decent running game might be enough to keep some pressure off Dungey.
The starter is going to be junior Dontae Strickland, who led the team in rushing last year. Strickland (566 yds, 3.5 avg, 4 TDs, 21 receptions) has yet to prove that he can be a big-time rusher thus far in his career, but his offensive lines have not helped him either. He is strong and experienced, yet he’s going to be pushed by sophomore Moe Neal, the top backup last year too. Neal (357 yds, 5.3 avg, 2 TDs) is more of a speed back and isn’t as big as Strickland, which might limit his role. Still, this isn’t a terrible one-two punch, assuming they get some blocking.
Wide Receivers: In order to run this type of offense, you really need a couple WRs to emerge and Syracuse had two guys top 90 receptions last year and two more had 48 catches each. Amba Etta-Tawo, who was the leading receiver, has moved on, but two of the other three guys return and give Syracuse a solid core to build off of.
Senior Ervin Phillips (90 recs, 822 yds, 6 TDs) has just produced since he stepped foot on campus and will be a reliable option. He is used a lot in the screen game, hence his low average per catch. Classmate Steve Ishmael (48 recs, 559 yds, TD) has perhaps the highest upside of anyone in the unit, but has struggled with inconsistency. Last year was a big step forward and big things are expected in his last year. Phillips will start in the slot and Ishmael will man one of the outside spots.
The other two starters are going to be junior Jamal Curtis on the outside and sophomore Sean Riley on the inside. Curtis missed last year due to injury. He was a well-regarded recruit who brings size (6-5, 230) to the table. He’ll face a push from sophomore Devin Butler and true freshman Sharod Johnson. Riley (11 recs, 109 yds) is a tiny guy (listed at 5-8, 155) who is quick and shifty. He got his feet wet last year and has been promising in practices. True freshman Nykeim Johnson is another small guy (5-8, 163) who looks like an ideal slot receiver. Senior Sean Avant gives Syracuse another experienced option, but he appears to be getting passed by the younger guys.
Offensive Line: This unit was often above average to good under the old coaching staff, but they struggled with the shift in philosophy last year. Syracuse allowed 38 sacks and didn’t open up running lanes, averaging just 120 yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. Nine different players started at least once last year, which clearly hurt cohesion and stunted the growth of this group. Of those nine, six are back so the staff hopes they can find a solid starting five and stick with them.
Syracuse just released their depth chart and the initial starting five will be: junior LT Cody Conway, redshirt freshman LG Sam Heckel, redshirt freshman C Airon Servais, sophomore RG Evan Adams, and senior RT Jamar McGloster. Conway and McGloster are the old hats of the group, having started 12 and 8 games respectively and spent some time as backups as well. Adams started 9 games last year and showed promise as a run blocker. Heckel, a 3* recruit who was thought to be a backup center, is starting because junior Aaron Roberts, who started all 12 games last year, was lost for the season due to a knee injury. Servais was the surprise of camp, jumping past Colin Byrne and Donnie Foster, who both saw starts at center last year, up to the starting job.
The offensive line group has good size and some experience, but there are still questions about how they will hold up over the course of a season. And after losing Roberts to injury, this unit really can’t afford bad injury luck.
DEFENSE
2016 Review/Scheme: The old staff, led by head coach Scott Shafer, tended to have pretty good defenses, but poor offenses, partially because Shafer was a former defensive coordinator. Last year was the exact opposite. Syracuse was good at times on offense, but they were poor on defense in nearly every game. Remember how I mentioned the offense put up 61 points on Pitt? Yeah, the Panthers dropped 76 on Syracuse. The defense was largely a sieve, giving up 39 points per game, 501 yards per game, and an absurd 6.9 yards per play. Nearly every guy who played significant snaps from last year is back, but will that be a good thing? Will returning an experienced group who was awful actually be good? Syracuse did suffer a lot of injuries, especially in the secondary, and so there is hope that this defense can improve. How much is the real question.
Defensive coordinator Brian Ward was with Babers at Bowling Green so he understands that his defense will be tested by Babers’ use of tempo, which can backfire if the offense goes off the field quickly over and over. The problem was that nothing really worked last year, often regardless of what the offense did. Ward runs a 4-3 that tends to be attacking on first and second down in order to be able to sit back on third down and keep everything in front of them. Syracuse was bad stopping the run last year so the idea of sitting back just never really happened. Ward is trying to get more beef up front, and more speed in the back seven, to help balance stopping the run with being aggressive.
Defensive Line: The run defense was really poor last year, giving up 225 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry. There are several experienced guys back, but the depth chart was thrown open to allow young players to push the veterans.
There has been a definite youth movement at defensive end, where sophomores Josh Black and Kendall Coleman have been tabbed as the starters. Black (21 tackles, 4 for loss) is the bigger of the two and looks like a potential edge setter. Coleman (29 tackles, 1.5 for loss) is more of a pass rusher, but he needs to prove he can hold up against the run and he needs to actually get after the QB. Depth is young too with sophomore Brandon Berry, a JC transfer, behind Black and true freshman Kingsley Jonathan behind Coleman. Jonathan had a very strong camp and has drawn constant praise.
The Orange have a nice starting duo at defensive tackle with juniors Chris Slayton and Kayton Samuels. Slayton (33 tackles, 10 for loss, 4 sacks) is big enough to stuff the run at 6-4, 315, but he is also agile and makes a lot of plays a guy his size just should not be able to. Samuels (17 tackles, 1 for loss) is more of a classic run-stuffer. Depth here is pretty good with sophomores McKinley Williams (14 tackles, 2.5 for loss) and Kenneth Ruff listed as the top backups. Williams saw some playing time last year in the rotation and has a potentially high ceiling.
Linebackers: Probably the best unit on the defense last year, experienced backups Marquez Hodge and Ted Taylor have moved on, but all three starters are back and there are a couple young guys who have some promise on the bench. This is probably the strong position segment on the defense.
The Orange will start a trio of seniors in WLB Paris Bennett, MLB Zaire Franklin, and SLB Jonathan Thomas. Bennett (110 tackles, 6.5 for loss, INT, 3 pass breakups, 3 forced fumbles) is an active, instinctive player with good enough size and athleticism to play both the run and the pass. Franklin (101 tackles, 10 for loss 2 sacks, INT, 3 PBU) won’t wow you physically, but he just makes plays and is productive. Thomas (52 tackles, 4 for loss) is not the biggest guy at 6-3, 209 but he has speed and great range.
There is a lot of potential among the backups. Sophomore WLB Andrew Armstrong (16 tackles) saw some action last year and is the heir apparent behind Bennett. Austin Valdez is a grad transfer from Bowling Green who has experience in the system and won the backup job at MLB. Junior Kielan Whitner (35 tackles) moved down from safety and won the backup job at SLB. He’ll add athleticism and the ability to play against pass-happy teams. Sophomore Troy Henderson, redshirt frosh Tim Walton, and true freshmen Nadarius Fagan and Kadeem Trotter were all 3* recruits who have promise.
Secondary: The secondary was ravaged by injuries last year, with four players who were expected to be starters playing in 19 games combined due to injuries. All of the top contributors from last year are back, as are two guys who missed the entire season due to injury and two grad transfers. This unit will have the numbers to field a quality unit; the question is whether they have the talent.
One area where the talent is undeniable is with the starting safeties, junior Antwan Cordry and sophomore Evan Foster. Cordry was an afterthought recruit due to his size (5-8, 180) but he has been productive ever since he stepped foot on campus. He missed last year due to injury and his return is a big benefit to this defense. He has drawn favorable comparisons to NFL safety Bob Sanders for obvious reasons. Foster only appeared in 9 games last year, but a big second year jump is expected out of him. A former 3* recruit, Foster has the size to be a solid strong safety. The Orange have some decent depth here too. Junior Rodney Williams (60 tackles, 3 for loss, 2 INTs, 2 PBU) started 10 games at strong safety last year and provides an experienced, if athletically limited backup. Junior Daivon Ellison (90 tackles, INT, 4 PBU) started 9 games in place of Cordry at FS last year, but is facing a battle with Jordan Martin, a grad transfer from Toledo, for the backup job. Ellison is a former CB who has pretty good ball skills while Martin is the bigger and rangier of the two.
Syracuse has an equal number of options at corner, but no standout talent like Cordry. The opening day starters will be sophomores Scoop Bradshaw and Christopher Frederick. Bradshaw played in 10 games as a true freshman, mainly on special teams, and the coaches like his quickness. Frederick (22 tackles, 2 for loss, INT) featured in all 12 games last year and started the final six. He is long, lean, and tough. The top backups will be junior Juwan Dowels and senior Devin Butler. Dowels was expected to contend for a starting job last year, but missed the season due to injury. He is still working his way back and is likely the first corner off the bench. Butler is a grad transfer from Notre Dame who featured in 37 career games with the Irish, mainly on special teams. He joined the team in the spring and instantly added competition. Other options here include junior Cordell Hudson (43 tackles, INT, 3 PBU), who started 5 games last year but has been passed by younger guys, and sophomore Carl Jones.
Special Teams: Senior Cole Murphy is back as the placekicker, but he was decidedly average, hitting on just 10 of 18 attempts. Murphy has a big leg (55 was his long), he just needs to up his accuracy. Sophomore Sterling Hofrichter is back to punt after a pretty solid debut season where he averaged 42.7 yards per punt and forced 21 fair catches. Bradly Estime was a great punt returner, but he has graduated and the coaches are hoping Sean Riley and Antwan Cordry can show equal explosiveness in the return game.
Schedule: The nonconference schedule (Central Connecticut, Middle Tennessee, Central Michigan, at LSU) should allow Syracuse to ease into conference play with 3 wins. The conference road schedule (at NC State, UM, FSU, and Louisville) is a nightmare and so if Syracuse is to push for bowl eligibility, they need to sweep Pitt, Wake, and BC at home.
Overall: Syracuse returns a lot of experience on both sides of the ball and they’ve got several guys returning from injuries or coming in as grad transfers. This unit will not lack for experience. The question is whether they have the overall talent to compete against a pretty tough conference schedule. I would expect improvement from the Syracuse offense if Dungey stays healthy and the defense has almost nowhere to go but up. If nothing else, the Orange have enough bodies on defense that they should be able to field a competent starting 11. Still, the schedule is a bear and the overall talent level is still below that of most ACC teams they’ll go up against. I feel safe in saying Syracuse will win 5 games, but finding a 6th win is tough. They pretty much have to beat Pitt for that to happen. That is possible but it is equally possible that the Orange slip up against a team like MTSU, CMU, Wake, or BC. Therefore, I feel like predicting a 5-7 year is the safe bet, but this team will likely be entertaining to watch. Whether Syracuse is giving up 50 points or scoring 50 themselves remains to be seen.