Opponent Preview – Louisville Cardinals

Louisville Cardinals
2016 Record: 9-4 (7-1, ACC Atlantic)

OFFENSE

2016 Review/Scheme: Through the first ten games of 2016, Louisville probably had the best offense in all of college football. In seven of the first ten games, the Cards scored at least 44 points and averaged 49.6 over the course of the stretch. The final three games, though, were completely different. Houston and LSU held Louisville to a combined 19 points and the Cards also lost a shootout with rival Kentucky, although they did put up 38 in that loss. Still, LSU and Houston gave defenses a blueprint for how to stop this attack (stop the QB run, force the pass) and every defense Louisville faces this year will surely try to emulate those defenses. 

For most of his career, Bobby Petrino was known for a pro-style offense that featured pro passing concepts and lots of deep shots. His QBs racked up passing yards and set records. When Petrino came back to Louisville in 2014, he decided he wanted to utilize mobile QBs to utilize his pro-style passing with a zone-read, option running attack. For the most part it has worked, but it also appears that if Louisville isn’t getting big plays in the run game, the passing attack suffers. 

Quarterbacks: We all know that the reigning Heisman Trophy winner is back, but junior Lamar Jackson was not immune to the funk that the offense had in the latter part of the year. Jackson put up video game numbers, registering over 5,000 total yards and 51 total touchdowns. There were chinks to Jackson’s game, though, as he completed just 56% of his passes and often got frustrated when things weren’t clicking, showing a lack of poise and leadership. People forget, though, that Jackson was a true sophomore last year and was not a full-time starter as a freshman so he is still learning. Everyone knows he has the athleticism and is a dynamic runner, but he also has the arm strength to make every throw and if he can improve his accuracy, he could be downright unstoppable. 

Depth last year was great with Kyle Bolin, who had several games as a starter under his belt, but Bolin has transferred to Rutgers and Louisville only has redshirt freshman Jawon “Puma” Pass and true freshman Malik Cunningham behind Jackson. Pass is a good enough athlete who still needs to work on his accuracy as a passer. Cunningham is likely headed for a redshirt. He has a cannon for an arm, but is still green and raw. 

Running Backs: Brandon Radcliff was probably the unsung hero of the Louisville offense last year. He wasn’t the only runner who saw action, but when teams got too worried about Jackson’s legs, Radcliff often made them pay. He’ll be missed, but don’t cry for Louisville because they’ve got four options to use here. 

A trio of seniors are battling to start. Reggie Bonnafon (13 recs, 159 yds, 5 TDs) started off his career as a QB and even started a handful of games in 2014, but the past two seasons he has spent time as an H-back and WR. This spring, he moved to RB and entered fall camp as the starter. He knows the offense, he’s big, and he’s a good athlete so he could be productive. Jeremy Smith (382 yds, 6.7 avg, 8 TDs, 18 recs, 227 yds, TD) is the biggest and most complete back of the group and has the biggest home run ability. Malik Williams (145 yds, 7.6 avg, TD) showed flashes last year and will get his chances. True freshman Colin Wilson was a 4* recruit who is big and exciting. He may have a hard time breaking into the rotation, but he’s a talented option. 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: Louisville lost a lot of production here, what with WRs Jamari Staples and James Quick and TE Cole Hikutini having moved on. That trio combined for 131 catches, 2,052 yards, and 16 touchdowns. That isn’t easy to replace, but the Cards do have strength in numbers at both WR and TE and this unit still oozes potential. 

Junior Jaylen Smith and sophomore Seth Dawkins seem like safe bets on the outside. Smith (27 recs, 599 yds, 6 TDs) led the team in yards per catch last year and has a great combo of size and speed. Dawkins (11 recs, 191 yds, TD) got his feet wet last year and flashed potential. In the slot, junior Traveon Samuel (18 recs, 230 yds, TD) is tiny (5-7, 170) but he actually had the best success rate of any WR on the roster last year. 

Depth is largely unproven, but the Cards have plenty of bodies. Junior Devante Peete was a highly regarded recruit who hasn’t done much yet. He’s 6-6, 210 and at minimum provides a matchup nightmare. Redshirt freshman Dez Fitzpatrick is thick and can box out defenders to catch the ball. The coaches love his upside. Sophomore Emonee Spence can play inside or outside. The coaches like the potential of true freshman Corey Reed. Cornelius Sturghill recently moved back to WR after switching to CB last year. Petrino said he needed more speed at WR and Sturghill’s move was designed to do just that. 

Hikutini will be hard to replace at tight end, but Louisville does have two experienced options in senior Charles Standberry and junior Micky Crum. Standberry isn’t the biggest guy at 6-3, 240, but he is a good athlete with some experience and would likely be reliable, but not a game changer. Crum was one of the top tight end recruits of his class, but he’s struggled with injuries and inconsistency. If he can put it together, he has the talent to do big things. 

Offensive Line: Much like the rest of the offense, this unit was dominant at times early in the season, but during the three-game losing streak to close out the year, the offensive line struggled to effectively pass or run block. Against Houston and LSU, this unit was whipped. The scary thing for Louisville fans is that three starters off of last year’s line are gone and only three players on the roster have ever seen extensive game action. The depth chart is littered juniors and freshmen. 

The two returning starters are junior LT Geron Christian and junior guard Lukayus McNeil. Christian has started 26 straight games and has earned all-conference honors the past two years. He’s the best lineman on the roster. McNeil started 23 games at RT, but he struggled with speed rushers and he has moved inside to take advantage of his run blocking. After that, only junior Kenny Thomas has any starting experience, having started four games at RT in 2015. Thomas is also moving inside to guard. McNeil and Thomas appear to be the starting guards, but I haven’t gotten a sense of who will play on which side. 

True freshman Mekhi Becton, who was ranked the #20 OT in the country last year, is the current leader to start at RT. Becton is massive (6-7, 340) and has drawn positive reviews from coaches and teammates alike. Redshirt freshman Robbie Bell is the leader to start at center. He has good size (6-5, 305) and seems to have a high football IQ. 

For the most part, depth is young, although junior LG Linwood Foy and junior RT Danny Burns have some experience. One guy to look out for is true freshman Cole Bentley, who had been the clubhouse leader to start at LG before McNeil and Thomas moved inside. 

DEFENSE

2016 Review/Scheme: When Petrino came back to Louisville, he hired former Georgia DC Todd Grantham to run the defense. As a Bulldogs fan, but also an FSU fan, this hire made me smile because Grantham’s defenses at Georgia consistently underachieved and I figured FSU would be able to light his defenses up. For the most part, I was right, but outside of giving up a ton of big plays in 2014, overall Grantham’s Louisville defenses were solid. They were aggressive and created a lot of negative plays and turnovers. Grantham was lured away to take another crack at the SEC, this time at Mississippi State. In an odd turn of events, Petrino hired the guy Grantham was replacing, Peter Sirmon, who had been fired by MSU. 

Many people think Petrino hired Sirmon because of his recruiting prowess, not his ability as a DC. That is possible considering Louisville must face FSU and Clemson every year. Giving further credence to this theory is the fact that Sirmon’s lone year at MSU was an unmitigated disaster. Sirmon’s arrival also sees a philosophical shift. Whereas Grantham pretty well strictly stuck to a 3-4, Sirmon is more multiple and tended to use 4-3, 3-3-5, and 4-2-5 looks at MSU. Sirmon is willing to be aggressive, but he likely won’t be as blitz heavy as Grantham was. Sirmon has an experienced unit to work with so if Louisville struggles on defense, you may have your answer on whether Sirmon was hired for his recruiting prowess or his X’s and O’s. 

Defensive Line: Because of the switch to a four-man line, Louisville is shifting some of the bigger OLBs from Grantham’s system into defensive ends. If the move works, this unit should be able to field a solid rotation, although on paper they don’t look super deep at either end or tackle. 

At defensive end, seniors James Hearns and Trevon Young are no-doubt starters. Hearns (43 tackles, 11 for loss, 8 sacks) is moving from OLB to WDE and has looked like a natural so far. He has great pass rushing ability, but his ability to hold up against the run will be tested. Young missed last year due to injury after racking up 8.5 sacks in 2015. That being said, Young was very inconsistent and the Cards need him to bring consistency every week. He’s the best pure pass rusher on the roster and could have a big year. Depth is the question here. Sophomore Jon Greenard (22 tackles, 7 for loss, 2.5 sacks) saw some action last year and flashed. Redshirt freshman Tabarious Peterson has good size and true freshman Malik Clark has a high ceiling. 

The big loss on the line was with the departure of DT DeAngelo Brown, a playmaker who could stuff the run or rush the passer. Louisville returns two seniors and two juniors so they have experience at tackle, but no one stands out as the playmaker Brown was. Senior NT DeAsian Richardson (17 tackles, 4 for loss) is strictly a run-plugger. Senior Drew Bailey (58 tackles, 9 for loss, 2 sacks) has the best chance of replicating Brown’s output and should be solid. Junior G.G. Robinson has not done much to this point but he is being relied upon to provide a pass rush from the inside. Junior Henry Famuwera (10 tackles, 3 for loss, 2 sacks) has bounced between DE and DT and can provide some snaps. Redshirt freshmen Derek Dorsey and Caleb Tillman will be given every chance to play. 

Linebackers: There are some concerns here after Keith Kelsey and Devonte Fields both moved on. Sirmon plans on building this unit around speed more than size so some of last year’s bigger guys are slipping down the depth chart. 

The guy Sirmon will build around is senior MLB Stacy Thomas, who finished second in tackles last year. Thomas (85 tackles, 7.5 for loss, INT) is a veteran leader who is consistent. He won’t make a lot of big plays, but he won’t make mistakes either. From there are unknowns. True freshman Dorian Etheridge has come out of nowhere to lead the pack at the WLB spot. Etheridge wasn’t a highly rated recruit, but he has shown a high football IQ with great read and reaction skills. Converted safety London Iakopo is the leader to start at SLB. Iakopo was a highly ranked JC recruit who missed last season due to an ACL injury. He is fast and the coaches have raved about how he goes 100% at all times. 

Depth is a question here. Sophomore Malik Staples, junior Damien Smith, junior Isaac Stewart (24 tackles), and sophomore Khane Pass (19 tackles, 1.5 for loss), a converted safety, appear to be the top backups. 

Secondary: The secondary saw multiple players shuffle in and out of the lineup and it was easily the position segment that struggled the most on defense. Clemson and even Kentucky just lit this secondary up and with CB Shaq Wiggins and S Josh Harvey-Clemons having moved on, there are concerns regarding whether this unit can improve, especially since Sirmon’s MSU secondary was awful. 

At corner, Louisville has a trio of guys to work with in junior Jaire Alexander, senior Ronald Walker, and senior Trumaine Washington. Alexander (39 tackles, 5 INTS, 9 pass breakups) is a speedy playmaker who has garnered some All-America buzz. Walker (23 tackles) provides size and is probably the top corner off the bench. The coaches are so confident in Washington (30 tackles, 2 INTS, 6 PBU) that they allowed Cornelius Sturghill, who was a presumed starter, to move back to WR. True freshman Russ Yeast, the son of former Kentucky WR Craig Yeast, will be given an opportunity to win a spot in the rotation. 

There is not much known depth at safety, but Louisville should have two solid starters in seniors Chucky Williams and Zykiesis Cannon. Williams (74 tackles, 2 for loss, 3 INTs, 3 PBU) finished third on the team in tackles and is a very solid strong safety. Cannon (66 tackles, 3 for loss, INT, 3 PBU) was technically a backup last year, but he actually played a lot at free safety. Junior Dee Smith (42 tackles) provides an experienced option off the bench. Beyond that are true freshmen Lyn Strange and TreSean Smith. 

Special Teams: The good news is that Alexander is a dynamite punt returner and punter Mason King (43.9 avg) is very good. The bad news is that neither Blanton Creque or Evan O’Hara were reliable over 40 yards kicking last year and neither has distinguished themselves this offseason. 

Schedule: This is an infinitely manageable schedule. The nonconference slate (vs. Purdue, Kent State, Murray State, at Kentucky) should really produce four wins. Clemson has to come to Louisville in the third game of the year, which could favor the Cards since Clemson lost a lot on offense. The ACC road slate (at UNC, at NC State, at FSU, at Wake) has a couple of landmines. 

Overall: Teams clearly began to figure out Louisville’s offense late last year, as even Wake Forest held the Cards down for a while before running out of gas. Teams are going to attempt to take away Jackson’s running ability and force him to pass. That will be easier said than done given his athleticism and speed, but this offensive line should scare Cards fans. They are inexperienced for the most part, are shuffling guys around, and don’t seem overly talented. The RB and WR units seem to have strength in numbers, but there will surely be a drop off in production at TE. The most intriguing unit is the defense, which is starting over schematically and we don’t really know what to expect out of Sirmon after a poor debut at MSU. Still, even with some tricky road games, this schedule is set up so that Louisville should win 8 or 9 games at minimum. I think with a year’s worth of film to study, the offense may not be as explosive as last year, but Bobby Petrino also has a way of fielding strong offenses no matter the personnel or opponent. I can’t imagine Jackson puts up the insane stats he did last year, but I also can’t imagine this team does worse than 8-4.