Opponent Preview – Duke Blue Devils

Duke Blue Devils
2016 Record: 4-8 (1-7, ACC Coastal)

OFFENSE

2016 Review/Scheme: Injuries, youth, and a lack of depth all conspired to make the Duke offense take a step back last year. The Blue Devils often started fast, but faded over the course of four quarters. Duke was able to field an efficient passing offense, but opponents had no respect for their ground game and did not fear being beat deep. As teams began to creep up, Duke was unable to score late in games. The Blue Devils scored 184 points in the first half of their games and just 96 in the second half. This season, Duke returns one of the most experienced offenses in the country in terms of returning production and the hope is that will translate to more points this year. 

Anyone who remembers David Cutcliffe from his days as the OC at Tennessee or the head coach at Ole Miss will still recognize this offense, even though Cutcliffe has modernized by utilizing the shotgun more and sprinkling in zone read concepts. Still, ultimately, Cutcliffe remains committed to an almost West Coast style offense in that the passing game is an extension of the run game and features very precise, short routes. When it works, it can slice open a defense through a thousand little cuts and can be difficult to defend, but too often last year it did not work. Cutcliffe has gone on record saying he wants to see the offense be more balanced this year. 

Quarterbacks: When Thomas Sirk was lost due to an Achilles injury before the 2016 season even started, few people would have thought that his replacement, Daniel Jones, would be entering 2017 as one of the ACC’s top quarterbacks. Jones (2836 yds, 63%, 16 TDs, 9 INTs, 486 yds rushing, 3.4 avg, 7 TDs) had his fair share of bumps and bruises as a redshirt freshman, but he also showed poise beyond his years and was often asked to carry the offense due to the lack of a steady run game. Jones seems like the ideal Cutcliffe QB—a big, strong, accurate passer with just enough mobility to make the defense think. Outside of Lamar Jackson and Deondre Francois, Jones is probably the best QB in the conference. 

Sirk is now gone, but Duke does have an experienced backup still with senior Parker Boehme, who has appeared in 18 games over the course of his career, back in the fold. That being said, sophomore Quentin Harris, who has yet to take a meaningful snap for Duke, is currently listed as the backup. 

Running Backs: Cutcliffe has always favored utilizing several RBs during his time at Duke and has rarely relied upon a workhorse. That will be the case again this year as the Blue Devils will utilize potentially four backs. 

The guys vying to start are senior Shaun Wilson and redshirt frosh Brittain Brown. Wilson (623 yds, 4.1 avg, 4 TDs, 8 recs) led the team in carries and yards last season and has the experience to once again be the starter. Despite his per carry average, Wilson is a home run threat with serious speed. Brown has the size and speed to be a major contributor and will push Wilson all year. Several guys are pushing for the third spot, including junior Nicodem Pierre, redshirt freshman Elijah Deveaux, and true freshmen Deon Jackson and Marvin Hubbard. 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: In terms of returning production and number of guys who have seen snaps, Duke may have the deepest group of pass catchers in the ACC. Seven guys who caught at least 11 passes return and Duke has a couple of highly rated freshmen to throw into the mix too. This unit isn’t necessarily chock full of future NFL guys, but it does have serious strength in numbers. 

Duke will typically line up in three-wide sets and the current starters are juniors Jonathan Lloyd and Chris Taylor on the outside and classmate T.J. Rahming in the slot. Rahming (70 recs, 742 yds, TD) is the star of the group after catching 113 passes in his first two seasons. He isn’t big and doesn’t make a lot of splash plays, but he runs precise routes and rarely drops passes. Lloyd (34 recs, 301 yds, 3 TDs) is in his second year as a starter and is productive, if unspectacular. Taylor (29 recs, 315 yds, TD) is a hard worker who provided a few big plays last year. 

Depth here is very solid. Sophomore Aaron Young (11 recs, 124 yds, 2 TDs) and senior Quay Chambers (15 recs, 187 yds, 2 TDs) can play inside or outside and will see the field a lot. Redshirt freshman Scott Bracey was a 4* recruit and he is pushing Taylor hard. True freshman Daymond Philyaw-Johnson may have a hard time cracking the rotation, but he also might have the best speed of any receiver on the team and has opened eyes in fall camp. Sophomore Keyston Fuller is a former 3* recruit who looks to be Lloyd’s backup. 

Duke has a great one-two punch at tight end in juniors Daniel Helm and Davis Koppenhaver. Helm (21 recs, 235 yds, 2 TDs) was a part-time starter last year and was probably the best tight end on the roster last season. He should be the starter all year this season. Koppenhaver (17 recs, 157 yds, 2 TDs) is not a great blocker, but he is a threat as a receiver and can be utilized split out wide, as an H-back, or as a traditional tight end. Redshirt freshmen Mark Birmingham and Jake Marwede were both high 3* recruits and will be given chances to see the field. 

Offensive Line: The offensive line was just okay last year, allowing 31 sacks and paving the way for a ground attack that was inconsistent and only averaged 3.9 yards per carry. After losing two stalwarts on the right side of the line, this group will be a work in progress, but Cutcliffe has recruited better here so a youth movement might be in store. 

Duke looks set on the left side of the line, what with senior LT Gabe Brandner and sophomore LG Julian Santos returning. Brandner has been battling some injuries, but if he is healthy, he is probably Duke’s most consistent lineman and is easily the most experienced, with 24 career starts. Santos played as a true freshman last year and has serious potential. Duke should be good at center too, where senior Austin Davis returns after starting all 12 games last year. 

The rebuild is occurring on the right side of the line. Junior Zach Harmon and sophomore Zach Baker are battling it out for the RG job and both have starting experience, but have been inconsistent. Redshirt freshman Jaylen Miller and true freshman Rakavious Chambers are getting long looks too. In fact, Chambers was recently listed as the backup RG to Harmon. At RT, Duke is relying on Evan Lisle, a grad transfer from Ohio State, to win the job. Lisle was a high 4* recruit who was ranked the #6 OT in the country in the class of 2012. However, things did not work out in Columbus, as Lisle mainly played special teams for the Buckeyes. He’s instantly the most talented guy on this roster. He does face competition from redshirt freshman Robert Kraeling, a high 3* recruit who is long and athletic. 

Cutcliffe really has built up the depth and talent here as Duke has one senior, two juniors, one sophomore, two redshirt freshmen, and three true freshmen that I did not mention who were all 3* recruits. That may not sound like much, but at a program like Duke, that is not the norm. 

DEFENSE

2016 Review/Scheme: The Blue Devils suffered a myriad of injuries on this side of the ball, especially at linebacker and in the secondary and the wheels really came off in the second half of the season after Duke had been fairly solid in the first five or six games. In the end, Duke gave up 28 points per game, 415 yards per game, and 6.3 yards per play. Much like the offense, this season the Devils return a lot of production and experience due to last year’s injuries. 

Jim Knowles, a former head coach at Cornell, was tabbed as the DC in 2015, but has been on staff since 2010. When Knowles took over in 2015, he brought a philosophical shift from a bend but don’t break style to an attacking style. Knowles figured that Duke didn’t have the personnel to hold up if teams went on long drives so he decided to attack to either force turnovers or give up chunks of yards. Knowles utilizes a 4-2-5 that puts a premium on speed over size. 

Defensive Line: The line was just not good enough last year, as they didn’t create a lot of big plays and opponents rushed for 175 yards per game. Four of the main contributors from last year’s unit have moved on and, on paper, this appears to be the weak link of the defense. 

If there is a stronger segment along the line, it is probably the ends. Sophomore Terrell Lucas (15 tackles, 2.5 for loss) was a top backup last year, but faces a fight for the rush end job from classmate Twazanga Mugala, who did not see any game action last year. Expect true freshman Drew Jordan, who has impressed in fall camp, to get a long look here and likely see situational snaps. The strongside end job is a battle between sophomores Tre Hornbuckle (15 tackles, 2.5 for loss) and Chidi Okonya. Hornbuckle has good size and is reputed to be a hard worker while Okonya has raw natural ability and was a high 3* recruit. Walk-on Danny Doyle (8 tackles, 1 sack) is a try-hard type who can give some snaps, although he is undersized. 

Duke does not appear to be deep at defensive tackle, but they do have four options to turn to. Senior Mike Ramsay (30 tackles, 2.5 for loss) is a sure-fire starter who is solid, if unspectacular. Junior Edgar Cerenord, a 300-pounder, is expected to win the other starting job. Depth is provided by sophomore Trevon McSwain and junior Quaven Ferguson. Ferguson goes 300+ pounds and can take up space while McSwain looks like a potential playmaker with his quickness and size (6-6, 280). 

Linebackers: The Blue Devils only field two starting linebackers, but they have three very good options here and actually have some of the better LB depth in the conference. 

One sure thing starter is junior MLB Ben Humphreys, a cerebral player who is a solid leader. Humphreys (106 tackles, 11 for loss, 4.5 sacks, INT) is an everydown guy who can play the run or pass. The duo of Joe Giles-Harris and Tinashe Bere will likely split the WLB job. Giles-Harris (107 tackles, 9.5 for loss, 4 sacks, INT) is a great attacking player with nice size. Bere (13 tackles) was lost for the season after just four games last year and his return is very much welcomed. He is a good athlete with likely the best speed of the unit. 

Depth here is solid too as the coaches really like sophomore MLB Koby Quansah (12 tackles), senior MLB Zavier Carmichael, and highly regarded redshirt freshmen Brandon Hill and Xander Gagnon. 

Secondary: This unit was hit the hardest by injuries last year and suffered accordingly down the stretch. This unit is still a question mark after losing three of their top four safeties and one starting corner. Duke still returns seven guys who all appeared in at least 11 games last year, but they will also likely be relying on some freshmen to step in too. 

At cornerback, Duke will be happy that senior Bryon Fields, the captain of the defense, returns for one more season. Fields (30 tackles, 2 INTs, 6 pass breakups) is not an elite corner by any stretch, but he should be solid due to his speed and experience. The other corner spot appears to be a wide open battle between sophomore Mark Gilbert, sophomore Brandon Feamster, junior Zach Muniz, and redshirt freshman Antone Williams. Gilbert (18 tackles, 2 for loss) started a handful of games last year and is probably the top choice. Feamster, who can also play safety, offers intriguing size at 6-3, 210. 

Duke plays with three safeties and it appears the starting trio is relatively locked down. Senior Alonzo Saxton (53 tackles, 3 for loss, INT, 3 PBU) has been a top backup and special teams ace for the past few years and will finally get his chance to start at Rover. Junior Jeremy McDuffie (17 tackles) is somewhat a jack of all trades who can play at the “Strike” safety spot or CB. He’ll start at Strike, but could move to corner if no one emerges to pair with Fields. Sophomore Jordan Hayes (24 tackles, 1.5 for loss) was pressed into action late last year due to injuries and will utilize that experience this year as the starter at Bandit. 

Depth at safety is almost exclusively young. Sophomore Rover Dylan Singleton (13 tackles, 2.5 for loss) is a favorite of the coaches and appears to have a bright future. Redshirt freshman Jacob Morgenstein and true freshman Michael Carter appear to be solid options at Strike if McDuffie needs to play corner some. The coaches are very high on redshirt frosh Javon Jackson and true freshman Marquis Waters at Bandit. 

Special Teams: The special teams were anything but last year from a kicking standpoint, although the return units were good. Sophomore kicker AJ Reed made just 3 of 10 field goal attempts and he is being pushed hard by grad transfer William Holmquist, who has impressed in summer camp. Sophomore Austin Parker (40.9 avg) returns to handle punting duties and he’s also vying for the placekicking job. The punt coverage unit was poor, allowing 9.4 yards per return, which ranked 94th in the country. On the plus side, RB Shaun Wilson was a very good kick returner, averaging 25 yards per return with one touchdown. 

Schedule: Duke had a pretty tough schedule last year and this year’s is probably harder. The Blue Devils face 10 teams who went bowling last year. The nonconference schedule (NC Central, Northwestern, Baylor, at Army) may yield just two wins. The ACC slate has most of the toughies (UM, FSU, Pitt, GA Tech) come to Duke. If the Blue Devils have any chance of going bowling, they need to make some hay with a road slate that features winnable games at UNC, UVA, and Wake. 

Overall: David Cutcliffe has definitely upgraded the talent level at Duke over the course of his tenure, but Duke has started to come back down to Earth after making a run to the ACC Championship game in 2013. The rest of the ACC has been upgrading their talent level as well so that has offset Duke’s improvement. It appears that this year, the Blue Devils should take a step forward on offense, but may take a step back on defense. Jones should be one of the ACC’s better QBs and the Blue Devils have enough talent at RB, WR, and TE to make some noise. The line may be slightly less experienced, but is also probably more talented. The defense looks good at LB and serviceable at safety, but depth and overall talent is a concern at DE, DT, and CB. The schedule is also a bear too. I think Duke can probably improve on last year’s win total, but likely only to 5-7. They appear to still be a year away from going bowling again.