Mark Richt has the Canes headed in the right direction, with Quarterback the biggest question mark.
Miami Hurricanes
2016 Record: 9-4 (5-3 ACC)
OFFENSE
2016 Review/Scheme: Although Thomas Brown is listed as the offensive coordinator, head coach Mark Richt is the playcaller. Part of the reason Richt was run out of Athens was because of his disastrous hire of Brian Schottenheimer as his final offensive coordinator at Georgia. Richt decided to take back the reins on offense and the results were promising. Despite a young WR corps and an unsteady offensive line, UM averaged 426 yards and 34 points per game. The offense probably wasn’t as balanced as Richt would have liked, often having to rely on the passing game against better defenses, but there were clear signs of progress. This season, expect to see a greater attempt to establish the running game while still utilizing the efficient passing game Richt became known for as an OC at FSU and a head coach at Georgia.
Quarterbacks: It is hard to say that a team sport can come down to one guy, but UM seems to check every box except at quarterback. Three-year starter Brad Kaaya decided to enter the NFL Draft and that leaves the Hurricanes desperately seeking a signal caller. As of now, it appears the race is still pretty wide open, with three contenders.
Junior Malik Rosier entered spring ball as the presumed starter. After all, Rosier started one game in 2015 and had been Kaaya’s backup for the past two seasons. However, Rosier only threw 4 passes last season (he’s thrown 61 for his career) and has not taken grasp of the job. That opened the door in the spring for sophomore Evan Shirreffs, an unheralded recruit who was offered a scholarship at the last minute by the old coaching staff. Shirreffs proved to be steady and a better athlete than most expected in the spring and likely exited spring ball as the starter. However, to complicate things, 4* true freshman N’Kosi Perry enrolled in the summer and has largely been viewed as the savior of the program by UM fans. Early indications, though, are that Perry is struggling a bit with his accuracy and Shirreffs and Rosier are probably still ahead of him. Perry was considered somewhat raw as a prospect, but it isn’t inconceivable that he could be the starter sooner rather than later. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a situation somewhat like we saw at Clemson in 2014 when Deshaun Watson was the backup until about halfway through the season behind a more experienced hand. To be fair to Shirreffs, I think he could be serviceable, but Perry clearly has the most upside of the trio.
Running Backs: Despite the loss of Joseph Yearby, who inexplicably left for the NFL Draft as a junior and went undrafted, and Gus Edwards, the Hurricanes return one of the top backs in the conference in Mark Walton, who will surely be asked to help the new QB early on. Walton (1117 yds, 5.3 avg, 14 TDs, 27 recs, 240 yds, TD) is a do-it-all back that can run between the tackles, hit the home run, and catch the ball. He isn’t the biggest guy (5-9, 205) but he’s tough as nails and should push for postseason honors.
Because of the loss of Yearby and Edwards, who finished 2nd and 3rd in rushing last year, UM is turning to junior Trayone Gray, sophomore Travis Homer, and true freshman Robert Burns to add depth. Gray missed last season with an injury, but he did see time in 2015 and showed flashes in his brief chances. He’s a big back (6-2, 235) who could add some thunder to Walton’s lightning. Homer got his feet wet last year, appearing in 12 games, mostly on special teams. He’s a former 4* prospect who has a nice combo of size and speed. Burns was not an elite recruit, but he brings college-ready size (5-11, 215) and could be used if necessary. That being said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he redshirts if the trio mentioned above stays healthy.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: This is a good news-bad news group. The bad news is that WR Stacy Coley and TE David Njoku, both of whom are in NFL camps, are gone. The good news is that sophomore Ahmmon Richards was probably the best freshman WR in the country last year and leads a unit that should be good enough for the new starting QB. They aren’t elite, but Miami has strength in numbers.
The star is Richards (49 recs, 934 yds, 3 TDs), a big play threat that averaged an absurd 19.1 yards per catch. He led the team in receiving yards as a true freshman (and broke Michael Irvin’s freshman receiving record) and should only improve as he understands the college game and the offense more and more. The only other sure thing of the WR corps is senior Braxton Berrios, an ideal slot man. Berrios (12 recs, 178 yds, 2 TDs) is by no means a star, but he has experience and makes tough catches. He’s never produced at a super high level though so he needs to step up this year. Top options from there appear to be junior Dayall Harris (9 recs, 90 yds) and sophomore Lawrence Cager. Harris has some experience and size, but isn’t an elite talent. He could develop into a possession guy though. Cager is big (6-5, 218) and returns after sitting out last year with an injury. Other options include junior Darrell Langham, another big guy, 4* sophomore Dionte Mullins, and highly regarded true freshmen DeeJay Dallas and Jeff Thomas.
Njoku was a serious threat as a tight end, but UM has a ready-made replacement in senior Chris Herndon, who has been a top backup for the past few years. Herndon (28 recs, 334 yds, 2 TDs) is a former H-back who finished 4th on the team in both receptions and receiving yards last year. He could blossom as a starter. Depth is the issue here. Sophomore Michael Irvin II and true freshman Brian Polendey are the only other options on the roster.
Offensive Line: If anything held the UM offense back last year, it was the offensive line. While the Hurricanes averaged a respectable 4.5 yards per rush last season, that hides the fact that they were held under 100 yards rushing four times last year. Miami QBs were also sacked 25 times last year, which isn’t horrible, but isn’t great either. UM lost four players who logged starts last year, most notably RG Danny Isidora and C Nick Linder, the latter of whom announced he was transferring after starting 25 games for the Canes. Miami has depth and experience here, but after several years of having middling lines, the question remains if they can find a consistent starting five.
If there are any sure things, it is seniors Trevor Darling and KC McDermott, slated to start at LG and LT respectively. Darling has 28 career starts and is solid, if unspectacular. McDermott was a very highly rated recruit who just hasn’t lived up to his billing. He started all 13 games last year, and 20 overall, but he needs to be more consistent. If McDermott falters, LSU transfer George Brown is waiting in the wings. From there, the two most obvious other starters are junior RT Tyree St. Louis and junior C Tyler Gauthier. St. Louis started 8 games last year and has the size and athleticism to be very good. Gauthier started 3 games last year and provides more size and girth than the departed Linder.
The RG spot is vacant and as of now, no one has really run away with it. Junior Jahair Jones was the backup last year, but he hasn’t played a lot. Sophomore Bar Milo and true freshman Navaughn Donaldson, a high 4* recruit, will be given a chance to win the job too. Milo is listed as a tackle, but could slide inside. Donaldson is a massive human (6-6, 350) who could use his girth to run block at RG.
DEFENSE
2016 Review/Scheme: If Richt did anything smart upon his hire, it was luring defensive coordinator Manny Diaz and defensive line coach Craig Kuligowski to Miami. Diaz’ reputation took a hit after a failed stint at Texas, but his defenses have traditionally been very good. Kuligowski was known for taking unknown recruits at Missouri and turning them into superstars and NFL Draft picks. The marriage worked, as UM’s defensive line spearheaded an attacking unit that allowed just 344 yards and 18.5 points per game. Diaz’ attacking style paid dividends, as the Canes racked up 37 sacks and 108 tackles for loss. The crazy thing about those numbers is that Diaz largely fielded a young defense and didn’t give up a lot of big plays despite the risky style.
Expect more of the same this year from Diaz, a Miami native (and FSU grad) who favors a 4-3 defense that is predicated on man-to-man coverage and attacking from all angles. Diaz is going to load up the box on running downs to try to force third and longs. The recipe largely worked last year.
Defensive Line: Most people assumed Kuligowski would make the UM d-line formidable, but considering he was utilizing so many young guys, few people expected them to be so good right off the bat, but good they were. The Canes have some questions at tackle, but this unit is pretty solid overall.
UM is super deep at end, where they’ll use a four man rotation of Chad Thomas, Joe Jackson, Trent Harris, and Demetrious Jackson. Thomas (37 tackles, 11 for loss, 4.5 sacks) is a former 5* recruit that really came into his own last year. Now a senior, Thomas is a team leader who can set the edge and has decent pass rushing skills. Jackson (32 tackles, 11.5 for loss, 8.5 sacks) was a revelation as a freshman and has a great combo of size (6-5, 260), athleticism, and quickness. Harris (25 tackles, 9.5 for loss, 3 sacks) is a bulked up former LB who can give you quality situational snaps. Jackson (28 tackles, 6 for loss, 2.5 sacks) is a solid backup who is good against the run. True freshman DJ Johnson was a highly rated recruit, but he may find it hard breaking into this rotation.
There is concern at tackle, though, after Courtel Jenkins graduated and Gerald Willis announced he was taking a leave of absence from the team. That leaves juniors R.J. McIntosh and Kendrick Norton as the only tackles who saw any substantive playing time last year. Granted, they are both very good, but depth will be tested. McIntosh (47 tackles, 9.5 for loss, 2.5 sacks) is active and disruptive. Norton (39 tackles, 10 for loss, 2 sacks) is the plugger and run-stuffer of the two, but he’s pretty athletic too. The only other listed tackles on the roster are senior Anthony Moten and sophomore Ryan Fines. Moten was a highly regarded recruit, but he hasn’t done much. Don’t be surprised if some bigger defensive ends, such as Thomas, slide inside at times to help out the depth here.
Linebacker: Give Diaz even more credit because he is the LBs coach and the situation looked dire heading into last season’s opener. Through injuries, suspensions, and graduation, UM was going to start three freshmen LBs and everyone predicted the defense would crumble. Instead, that trio turned out to be fantastic and now UM has depth to boot with some of those injured guys returning to the fold. This should be one of the deepest LB corps in the country.
The star of the group was probably sophomore MLB Shaq Quarterman, who finished second on the team in tackles as a true freshman. Quarterman (84 tackles, 10 for loss, 3.5 sacks) is big and instinctual and should only get better. He’s a prototypical middle ‘backer. On the outside, sophomores Michael Pinckney and Zach McCloud were active and disruptive. Pinckney (61 tackles, 7.5 for loss, 2.5 sacks) is long and lean and can play the run or pass and blitz off the edge. McCloud (37 tackles, 3.5 for loss) is more of an edge setter with good size.
Unlike last year, depth this year should be very good. Junior Darrion Owens (17 tackles, 2 for loss) is highly regarded by the coaches and has great size. He’ll be the top backup at WLB. Juniors Charles Perry (12 tackles) and Mike Smith (11 tackles) are relatively experienced backups who can play either MLB or SLB.
Secondary: If this defense had any weak spots, it was in pass defense. Despite getting after the QB fairly consistently, UM surrendered 17 touchdown passes against 8 interceptions and allowed opposing QBs to complete nearly 60% of their passes. The overall yardage wasn’t bad (214 yards per game), but the secondary was exploited at times.
Part of the problem was at CB, where UM constantly shuffled players, with the exception of the now-departed Corn Elder. Elder, who was a high NFL Draft pick, was solid and a leader and he’ll be missed. Cornerback could end up being a problem position, especially if grad transfer Dee Delaney doesn’t pan out. Delaney was one of the best FCS defensive backs in the nation at The Citadel and will be given every chance to immediately win a starting job. He has size and athleticism, but obviously hasn’t faced very many FBS wideouts in his time. Sophomore Malek Young (23 tackles, INT) makes up for his lack of size (5-9, 180) with solid coverage skills but he isn’t elite by any stretch. The Hurricanes are hoping 4* JC transfer Jhavonte Dean can walk in and play immediately as well. Dean is long and lean at 6-2, 185 and at least provides depth. From there, UM can look to junior Michael Jackson, who hasn’t played much yet, or 4* true freshman Trajan Bandy, who will be given every chance to not redshirt.
Despite losing Jamal Carter and Rayshawn Jenkins, who finished 1st and 3rd in tackles last year, the Hurricanes do have some potential at safety. Juniors Jaquan Johnson and Sheldrick Redwine return after being top backups last year. Johnson (38 tackles, 3 for loss, 1.5 sacks, INT) is a rangy, talented athlete who should excel at the Rover spot. Redwine (28 tackles, 2 pass breakups) is not as good of an athlete as Johnson, but he has a high football IQ and likely won’t make a ton of mental mistakes. The ceiling for this duo isn’t necessarily super high, but their floor isn’t very low either. Depth could be an issue as sophomores Robert Knowles and Romeo Finley, who both almost exclusively played special teams last year, and true freshmen Amari Carter and Derrick Smith are the only other safeties on the roster.
Special Teams: UM must replace Justin Vogel, who was a solid punter, but kicker Michael Badgley is back and he is one of the best in the ACC. Badgley hit on 21 of 26 FGs last year and most impressively was 10 of 11 from 40+ yards. Braxton Berrios is a solid punt returner, but the Hurricanes did not get much out of their kick returns last year and could stand to improve there. The kick coverage unit could stand to improve as well.
Schedule: This is a schedule designed to make a run at a division title. While UM must play three tricky road games in the ACC (at FSU, at UNC, at Pitt), they will only be decided underdogs in the FSU game. In fact, Bill Connelly’s S&P system gives UM a 60% chance to win at Chapel Hill and a 57% chance to win at Pittsburgh (versus a 20% chance at FSU). The home slate brings GA Tech and VA Tech, two other divisional rivals, to Miami. The nonconference schedule (Bethune-Cookman, at Arkansas State, Toledo, Notre Dame) should be a cakewalk besides the home date with the Fighting Irish. And why is Miami traveling to Arkansas State?!?
Overall: The U is back!!! Okay, I just had to do that to mock UM fans. But, there is no doubt about it; Mark Richt is improving the Miami program. Last year’s team was by no means perfect and went on another losing skid after the loss to FSU, but Richt ended the year on a five-game winning streak and signed a good recruiting class. While former coach Al Golden reportedly burned many bridges with south Florida high school coaches, Richt is mending those fences. But he still has to win games and this year seems to be falling in line…if UM can find a QB. Most of the rest of the division is rebuilding, the schedule sets up nicely, and Miami returns what should be a top 10 or 15 defense. But, as we have seen time and again in college football, teams without a good QB play often have a ceiling, no matter how good their defense is. The Hurricanes have two games to figure out who to turn to, but the road trip to Tallahassee will be very tough if they still aren’t settled at QB. Heck, it will be even if they pick a guy. Right now, Shirreffs seems to be the clubhouse leader with Perry waiting in the wings. If the o-line can give UM a solid ground attack, that will take some pressure off the QB but there are concerns if that will happen. This defense is good enough to carry UM in several games, but the questions on offense lead me to believe this is probably a 9-3/8-4 team. That might be good enough to win the division and compete for an ACC title, which would be another step forward for Richt.