Matt Viator and the Warhawks could be in for another long season.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
2016 Record: 4-8 (3-5, Sun Belt)
OFFENSE
2016 Review/Scheme: When Matt Viator was hired to be the head coach at ULM, from nearby FCS powerhouse McNeese State, he hired Matt Kubik as offensive coordinator. Kubik had been very successful at Stephen F. Austin and his hire was something of a coup as he was considered an up and coming coach. The offense showed glimpses under Kubik, scoring more than 31 points on five occasions, but they were also hampered by injuries, a revolving door at QB, and a lot of inexperience. They were decent rushing the ball, but the air game never seemed to gain consistency.
Enter 2017 and Kubik has a lot of pieces and parts to play around with due to those injuries. Plus, ULM brought in the best recruiting class in the Sun Belt and that included several FBS and JC transfers on this side of the ball who should see time immediately. This may allow Kubik to put his stamp on this year’s team, mixing a power running attack with efficient, play-action passing. Kubik’s offenses at SFA were fairly balanced and I think if he can find a QB he trusts, you’ll see a pretty balanced attack that utilizes lots of different formations to give opposing defenses lots to think about.
Quarterbacks: The good news is that ULM returns three quarterbacks who started games last year. The bad news is that none of them really stood out. Junior Garrett Smith (1237 yards, 58%, 9 TDs, 7 INT, 308 yds rushing, 5.1 avg, 3 TDs) started the first six games and was pretty good, but he was lost for the season due to injury. Sophomore Will Collins (233 yds, 48%, 2 TDs, 3 INT, 105 yds rushing, 2.7 avg) started the next two games but struggled and was replaced by classmate Caleb Evans. Evans (834 yds, 53%, 4 TDs, 6 INT, 163 yds rushing, 3.2 avg, TD) struggled himself, but showed enough flashes to enter this season pushing Smith for the starting job. The spring only affirmed that, with Evans throwing three touchdown passes in the spring game. Evans has the highest upside between his athleticism and strong arm. If he can cut down on the turnovers and raise his completion percentage, he could have a bright future. All that being said, as of mid-July, Smith was still considered the starter due to his experience and better accuracy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both guys see time throughout the year.
Running Backs: In terms of experience and sheer numbers, ULM may have one of the deepest group of runners among non-Power 5 teams. The top four rushers from last year return and ULM adds Alabama transfer Derrick Gore to the mix. This was a run-first team last year and will likely remain so due to the depth here.
Exiting spring ball, sophomore Austin Vaughn and junior Ben Luckett were the top two on the depth chart. Vaughn (268 yds, 5.6 avg, TD) appeared in all 12 games last year and showed more big play ability than his counterparts. Luckett (450 yds, 3.8 avg, 5 TDs, 10 receptions) is more of a plodder who moves the chains forward. Sophomore Duke Carter IV (281 yds, 3.3 avg, TD, 9 receptions) and junior Thomas Koufie (426 yds, 5.3 avg, 9 TDs) both saw lots of playing time too and will be in the mix again this year. The x-factor is Gore, a guy who was unfazed by Alabama’s depth chart and walked on to the Tide program. The more amazing thing is that Gore actually saw playing time in a handful of games last year, including the SEC title game. He has potential and there are enough pieces and parts here to make sure ULM has a good running game.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: The Warhawks took some hits here, losing second leading receiver Ajalen Holley and starting tight end Alec Osborne, but overall ULM has pretty solid depth and a nice blend of guys with size and guys with quicks. This unit isn’t necessarily going to scare anyone, but they are serviceable.
ULM will line up in three-wide sets most of the time and the leaders to start are a trio of juniors: Marcus Green, Xavier Brown, and RJ Turner. Green (36 recs, 344 yds, 4 TDs, 119 yds rushing) led the team in receptions last year and is a dangerous slot receiver. Brown (25 recs, 425 yds, 4 TDs) and Turner (23 recs, 433 yds, 3 TDs) were the top two receivers in terms of yards and yards per catch last year. They are both big play threats on the outside and bring decent size to the table. ULM has some experienced depth in senior Brian Williams and junior Markis McCray, although they only combined for 11 catches last year. Williams seems to have a good rapport with Caleb Evans so if he wins the QB job, that might be something to watch for. Sophomore Brandius Batiste and true freshman Zachari Jackson are two more options off the bench to look out for.
Despite the loss of Osborne, ULM has plenty of options at tight end. Sophomore Kyle Nevels was the top backup last year and caught 4 passes in limited playing time. Sophomores Reagan Heddins and Josh Pederson both saw some playing time as backups last year, but they are both undersized and might still need time in the weight room. JC transfer Sloan Spiller has a very good chance of jumping up the depth chart quickly.
Offensive Line: This unit was pretty good, all things considered, last year. ULM ran for over 180 yards per game and allowed 19 sacks on the year. Not terrible numbers considered this was a 4 win team. However, ULM is starting over on the left side of the line and will likely be banking on some transfers and freshmen to immediately fill vacancies.
Because of the loss of LG Jeff Savage, senior Frank Sutton has moved over to the left side after playing RG last year. Sutton started 10 games last year and has 29 career starts to his name. He should be solid. Lining up next to him will likely be sophomore Trace Ellison, a transfer from Texas Tech. Ellison is the highest ranked recruit of anyone on the offensive line and gives the unit an immediate upgrade in talent. That being said, he’s never played much at the FBS level so he still needs to prove it on the field.
The right side of the line should be a bit more settled with sophomore Devin Jackson penciled in at guard and junior Keaton Baggs and sophomore Eastwood Thomas battling it out at RT. Jackson started 9 games last year and is a mauler. He’s being pushed by redshirt frosh T.J. Fiailoa, a massive man (6-4, 340) who has more upside than Jackson but less experience. Baggs started 1 game last year while Thomas, a former walk-on at Alabama, started 10 games last season. Sophomore Samuel Williams, a 3* recruit, is long and lean and could be a factor here too. At center, sophomore Bobby Reynolds is the clubhouse leader after starting 5 times last year.
While this offensive line isn’t going to set the world on fire, the two-deep is much better this year than last with guys like Fiailoa, Ellison, Williams, and JC transfer Joquarious Savage added to the mix. Because of that added depth, ULM should be able to field a good starting five.
DEFENSE
2016 Review/Scheme: Much like on the offensive side, it looked like ULM pulled a coup when they hired Sam Houston State defensive coordinator Mike Collins to the same post in Monroe. Collins’ SHS defenses were among the best in the FCS and he’s considered an up and comer on this side of the ball. However, it didn’t all come together as ULM may have hoped. ULM did not see the injuries on defense that they suffered on offense and yet they finished dead last in rushing defense, allowed 480 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play, and allowed an absurd 39.1 points per game. Most of last year’s contributors return and ULM brought in some transfers to try to help bolster this unit. It remains to be seen if that will help.
Collins runs a 4-2-5 defense that puts a premium on speed and attacking because ULM does not have enough size to let teams dink and dunk and wear them down. The only problem was that the Warhawks did not create much havoc last year (just 17 sacks and 13 turnovers forced) so the attacking really didn’t do much. ULM has more depth this year, but they still don’t have a lot of size so it will be interesting to see if Collins tones down the aggression and tries to force teams to go on 10 play drives or if he keeps trying to force the opposing teams hand. The offense lit the defense up in the spring game so early indications are that the defense still has a ways to go.
Defensive Line: Okay, so this unit struggled last year. As already mentioned, ULM only sacked the QB 17 times and they gave up 260 rushing yards per game. That doesn’t fall solely on the line, but this unit failed to defeat blockers. The most worrisome thing for ULM fans is that if any progress is to be made, it has to be made by the guys who played last year because only two newcomers are expected to see playing time.
The good news is that ULM has some talent and depth at defensive end, what with returning starters in senior Caleb Tucker and junior Shaquille Warren and a 3* backup in undersized sophomore Sam Miller. Tucker (50 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 3 sacks) was one of the few playmakers on the defense and should push for all-conference honors. Warren (29 tackles, 3 for loss) was far less productive but is bigger and sets the edge okay. Miller goes just 219 pounds but has potential as a pass rusher. The coaches are hoping sophomores Donald Louis (14 tackles, 2.5 for loss, 2 sacks), Ty Shelby, and Kerry Starks all push hard for playing time as they would all add much-needed size.
At defensive tackle, it is much the same. ULM has several guys with experience, but they are mostly undersized and haven’t produced much to this point. Exiting spring, junior Tyler Johnson and sophomore Jaylen Veasley were the starters. Johnson (18 tackles) is the bigger of the two and is okay against the run. Veasley (19 tackles, 3 for loss) was the higher rated recruit and has more potential as a playmaker. Depth is an issue here. Louis can see time at end or tackle. The coaches toyed with using Warren as a backup at tackle in the spring. Senior Howard Houston and junior Derion Ford could add much-needed girth, but neither have done anything to this point in their career. True freshman Demonde Harris will get a long look due to his size and potential.
Linebackers: All of the top contributors here are back so there is hope that this unit sees a big step forward. It is really hard to assess the play of the linebackers since the defensive line rarely kept them clean by occupying blockers. This unit has lots of experience and a few talented youngsters to push the starters. Much like the line, though, this unit is largely undersized.
ULM goes with two linebackers and junior David Griffith and sophomore Chase Day are the undisputed starters at this point. Griffith (78 tackles, 12 for loss, 4 sacks) is an active, quality player that simply lacks ideal measurables. Day (70 tackles, 9.5 for loss, 2 sacks) is almost a carbon copy of Griffith, but a little bit bigger and a better athlete. They form a good duo. Depth is solid too with senior Jarred Dunn (19 tackles, 3 for loss) and sophomore Cortez Sisco (60 tackles, 3.5 for loss) very good options off the bench. The coaching staff is very excited about true freshman Rashaad Harding, one of the highest ranked recruits any Sun Belt team signed.
Secondary: The defensive line did not help them since they generated little pass rush and the poor run defense meant ULM was susceptible to play-action passing, but any way you slice it the pass defense was not good. Giving up 220 yards per game isn’t terrible, but ULM allowed 22 touchdown passes to just 6 interceptions and allowed opponents to complete 60% of their passes. Despite losing their best safety and cornerback, there is hope that this year will see improvement though. On paper, ULM returns one of the deepest group of DBs in the conference and is adding some nice new additions as well.
The Warhawks are probably most set at safety, where they return four players who saw extensive playing time last year. Sophomore Nick Ingram only started one game last year, but big things are expected of the free safety. Ingram (55 tackles, 2.5 for loss) saw extensive playing time last season and the coaches think he has all-conference potential. Joining him at safety will be junior Wesley Thompson, (56 tackles, 1.5 for loss) a solid run supporter with nice size and athleticism. The third safety spot will go to senior Roland Jenkins (31 tackles, 2 for loss) or junior Marcus Hubbard (33 tackles, 4.5 for loss, 3 pass breakups). Hubbard started 10 games last year, but could stand to up his production while Jenkins was a top option off the bench. True freshmen Traveion Webster and Austin Hawley were both top recruits who likely will see time off the bench at some point due to their size and athleticism.
At corner, senior Juwon Offray returns after being ULM’s top cover guy last year in his first season out of the JC ranks. Offray (23 tackles, 6 PBU) has good size and length and should have another good year. Starting alongside him will likely be junior Jarell Brown, who appeared in 8 games last year, mainly on special teams. Brown is a small guy but has experience in the system. Don’t be surprised, though, to see sophomore Semaj Franklin, redshirt frosh Logan Latin, or JC transfer Collin Turner push Brown hard. Latin and Turner are expected to be the top two choices for the Nickelback job. Two other names of note are JC transfer J.J. Dallas and true freshman Corey Straughter, both of whom were high 3* recruits and were among the best signees in the conference. They’ll both be given every chance to get playing time.
Special Teams: Craig Ford is a solid enough kicker, but he doesn’t have much range beyond 40 yards. He hit all six kicks under 40, but was only 3 of 7 from 40+. There is an open audition for the punter job and no one seized the spot in the spring. Punt returner Marcus Green and kickoff returner Markus McCray are decent.
Schedule: The nonconference schedule (at Memphis, at FSU, Southern Miss, at Auburn) is rough to say the least. Those will basically be check-cashing games, although if ULM’s offense can do anything against Memphis they might be able to give that one a go. ULM will be pinning their hopes on improving in league play and they stand a bit of a chance because the Sun Belt’s two best teams (App State and Arkansas State) both travel to Monroe. If ULM is to improve, they must win home games against Coastal Carolina and Georgia State and winnable road dates with Idaho, South Alabama, Texas State, and rival UL-Lafayette.
Overall: Ok, you’ve read this long so by now you probably know ULM is not a very good team and FSU should wipe the floor with them. If it wasn’t for Delaware State, this would be by far FSU’s easiest game. ULM is going to be outmatched by most team’s they face because their defense is probably still among the worst in the country and the offense is still trying to figure out the passing game. The running game should be pretty good and ULM is building decent depth on defense, especially at LB and in the secondary. Overall, though, the Warhawks are young at many spots and are probably a year or two away from competing, even in the Sun Belt. In fact, Bill Connelly’s S&P system gives them a better than 50% chance to win just one game. One! ULM is likely looking at another 4-8 year, but they could see progress despite the win total staying static. The ULM job is one of the hardest in the country, but Viator is recruiting as good or better than everyone in the Sun Belt so it could be that he is building something in Monroe. Time will tell, but 2017 is likely not the Warhawks’ year.