FSU vs Georgia Tech: Preview and Prediction

This will be short and sweet this week as I let the time get away from me.  Simply put, if Dalvin Cook stays healthy, he should have a field day.  Tech has the 106th ranked rush defense in the nation according to S&P while the Noles have the #1 ranked rush offense.

This is a more respectable matchup as FSU has the 47th passing attack in the nation according to S&P against Tech against Tech’s 54th ranked pass defense.  Everett Golson has put together back to back impressive performances, though, and if he’s finally clicking than the FSU attack is probably better than the ranking shows due to poor performances at the beginning of the season.

Here’s the matchup of the night.  Tech is, obviously, a running team and they boast the 15th best rushing attack in the nation according to S&P. They struggled mightily during some of their 5 game swoon, however, looked to be back on track last week against Pitt turning to a freshman.  FSU has been very good against the run this year and is ranked the 9th rush defense in S&P.  This is what determines this game.  The Noles will most likely be without Terrance Smith at linebacker again, which is certainly a big loss against this team.  The game, like always, will come down to the trenches. If the FSU DL can dominate the line of scrimmage like they have recently, Tech will struggle.  That’s not to say they won’t get their yards, their an option team that runs most of the time.  Limit the big plays, though, and it becomes hard to sting an entire drive together with 3-4 yard plays. I like FSU in this matchup right now, but not by much at all and I”m not overly confident in that assessment.

This is just a matter of not falling asleep on the edges and staying a least respectful of Tech’s willingness to pass.  Tech doesn’t really have a passing game, per se, and the FSU DBs are certainly more talented than the GT WRs.  This strictly comes down to not getting sucked in on a play fake or an option look and getting beat long for a big one.

It is written that whosoever punts against Florida State shall be transformed into the reincarnation of Ray Guy and Rohn Stark combined..or so that’s how it’s seemed this season.  So, I complete expect Tech’s punter, who is not even averaging 40 yards this season to boom multiple 50 yard punts with 6 second hang time.  Outside of that, this is an advantage for Florida State with an excellent kicker and a dangerous return game that has the ability to pop one at any time.  Tech’s only 4 of 7 on FGs this season and, other than a 47 yard kickoff return, aren’t even averaging 20 yards per return this season.

When you really break down the individual matchup in this one, I have to be honest and say this feels like a possible blow out.  However, Tech is a better team than their record (their 5 losses come to teams that are a combined 27-4 and they’ve all been pretty close). Also, it’s a night game in what has become a nice little rivalry, so I expect them and their fans to be jacked up.  I do think their rush offense may have found something last week, so we may be facing a little different team than they were a few weeks ago, but even with that found rush offense they lost to Pitt.  I’m gonna take the emotion out of this one and go with my head.