Florida Gators
2013 Record: 4-8 (3-5 SEC)

OFFENSE

Scheme: Yes, last year’s abysmal offensive showing was due largely to injuries at pretty much every offensive position, but fans were disaffected with departed coordinator Brent Pease’s offense regardless. To be fair to Pease, I think his conservative, ground and pound offense was what head Coach Will Muschamp wanted (basically the offense was not to lose the game), but it certainly made for ugly football and close games against pretty much everyone. And close games can just as easily turn into wins, like in 2012, as they can turn into losses, like they did in 2013. The bottom fell out for Pease last year, as the Gators limped to 18.8 points per game and 316.7 yards of total offense per game.

In his place, Muschamp hired away Duke’s offensive coordinator, Kurt Roper, who had worked under David Cutcliffe since the late 1990s. In many ways, I think Roper’s offense is just as conservative as Pease’s, but it is hidden in the window dressing that is the spread offense. At Duke, Roper led an offense that threw safe passes, spread defenses out to run up the middle, and threw in the occasional zone read. Expect to see the same at Florida. Roper runs what I would call a “true” spread in that he is spreading the defense out to create matchups in the running game, give the QB easy reads, and keep the defense guessing as to which skill player will get the ball. In many ways, this is a simple offense to learn, but can be hard to stop.

Quarterbacks: It wasn’t quite as bad as Maryland having to field a LB at QB a few years back, but the Gators experienced their own bad luck at this position last year. Starter Jeff Driskel broke his leg in the Tennessee game. Tyler Murphy stepped in, but he got injured so then-freshman Skyler Mornhinweg finished out the season in the final three games. It showed off Florida’s lack of talented depth at the position, but it was mostly just bad luck. In some ways the depth issues remain, but the coaches hope they don’t need to go to the bench too often.

Driskel (477 yards, 69%, 2 TDs, 3 interceptions, 72 yds rushing, TD) has been a polarizing figure, flashing potential but also making mental mistakes. It is easy to forget, though, that the guy hasn’t played as much as you might think: backup as a freshman, starter as a sophomore, only lasted 2+ games as a junior. And he’s now on his third coordinator. Still, Roper’s offense seems to suit Driskel’s strength as a dual-threat guy. Driskel has a cannon for an arm and good athleticism; the questions revolve around intangibles and the mental part of the game. If he can stay healthy, I’d guess he has a good year.

As for depth, Mornhinweg (344 yds, 70%, 3 TDs, 1 int) is back, but the battle for the backup job is really between incoming freshmen Treon Harris, a one-time FSU verbal commit, and Will Grier. Grier is the more physically gifted (at least according to the scouting reports) but according to our own Mr. Blonde, the two are running neck and neck in summer practices, which likely means Harris will be the #2 and Grier will redshirt unless absolutely needed. Harris is a coach’s son who has a high football IQ (I, personally, was quite bummed when he decommitted from FSU) and will probably see time as a runner and in special packages, which Roper used quite often at Duke with Brandon Connette.

Running Backs: Injuries hurt this unit last year as well, but if this group stays healthy you have to think Florida has a nice trio to work with. Sophomore Kelvin Taylor and junior Matt Jones will likely get the lion’s share of the carries. Taylor (508 yds, 4.6 average, 4 TDs) flashed potential behind a pretty poor line last year and is probably your opening day starter. Jones (339 yds, 4.3 avg, 2 TDs) was limited to five games due to injury, but he has a great size and speed combo that could be devastating in a spread attack. Senior Mack Brown (543 yds, 3.7 avg, 4 TDs, 11 receptions) is probably a better fit for the old offense than the new one, but he at least provides experience and toughness between the tackles. Redshirt freshman Adam Lane and true frosh Brandon Powell will get a look, but I doubt they’d be in line for more than a few carries per game.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: For a school like Florida, they should be getting way more production out of this group, which has been average to poor in the past few seasons. The Gators have several guys with recruiting accolades, but they need some youngsters to step up for this group to scare anybody.

Senior Quinton Dunbar (40 recs, 548 yds) will be the go-to guy and will probably be fine. What the Gators need are other guys to step up. The top candidates to bank on are sophomores Ahmad Fulwood and Demarcus Robinson. Fulwood (17 recs, 127 yds, TD) flashed potential last year and coaches have sung his praises all offseason. He’s got a great size-speed combo. Robinson didn’t do a lot last year, but has great athleticism. Classmate Chris Thompson has received a lot of hype this offseason as well and big things are expected of him. Juniors Valdez Showers (18 recs, 102 yds, TD) and Latroy Pittman, redshirt frosh Alvin Bailey, and senior Andre Debose (yes, he’s still around) will be in the mix too, but I think UF needs the group of Dunbar, Fulwood, Robinson, and Thompson to be the torch-bearers.

At tight end, the Gators received a big boost with the addition of Jake McGee, a graduate transfer from Virginia. McGee (43 recs at UVa in 2013) is an NFL talent who thrived in a putrid Cavaliers offense and provides an instant weapon for Driskel. Seniors Tevin Westbrook and Clay Burton are back and are mainly blockers.

Offensive Line: And herein lays the rub. Roper’s offense may be a better fit for Driskel and should show off the talents of the skill players better, but can this group open up running and passing lanes for them? Reviews from the beat writers who follow Florida have been mixed, with some saying the line has looked awful and others saying the starting five is pretty good, but depth is a question. Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in between?

Lost in the discussion of Roper’s hire was the fact that Muschamp also brought in a new offensive line coach when he hired Mike Summers, a well-regarded coach. Summers has had an immediate impact, at least in terms of reshuffling the group. Senior Max Garcia has moved to center, which should be a good spot for the heady, consistent lineman. The moves that could pay off the most are the shifting of Tyler Moore, Trenton Brown, and DJ Humphries. Moore, a junior and former Nebraska transfer, was beat too often at LT, but should be better suited at LG. Ditto for Brown, a massive (6’8, 350) man who looked out of place at RT, but should use his girth well at RG. Humphries, a junior former five-star recruit with 9 career starts, has showed flashes at LT so far in practices. Senior Chaz Green, who has 19 career starts, returns from injury to hold down the RT spot. That gives you a potentially solid starting five, although not a cast of world-beaters to be sure.

Depth is the main concern for Gator fans and coaches. Think of FSU’s line last year and you’ve got an idea of what UF is facing. Junior Trip Thurman has some experience and can plug in at guard, but beyond that will most likely be redshirt or true freshmen and reports out of August practices regarding the second-team line have not been encouraging.

DEFENSE

Scheme: In what will come as no surprise, the defense was not the problem in 2013. Granted, the injury bug hit here too and the last half of the season did not see a vintage Muschamp defense, but this group still only allowed 314.2 yards per game and 21.1 points per game with basically no help from the offense. If injuries don’t occur, I would expect this to be among the nation’s best defenses and that is probably the case as long as Muschamp is around.

Muschamp runs a multiple scheme that is a 4-3 at its base, but easily shifts to a 4-2-5. At times the Gators go bump and run, man to man coverage; at other times, they use zone blitzes. Unlike some other SEC defenses, Muschamp places more premium on speed than size in the front seven and you could argue that some of the guys up front are undersized, but the results speak for themselves.

Defensive Line: Dominique Easley was limited to three games last year so it is hard to imagine Florida will feel his loss much, although he was a 1st round NFL Draft pick. In fact, the Gators should field a very good starting four. The question, much like the offensive line, will be depth.

Dante Fowler, Jr., is the bell cow of the group. A bit of a tweener at 6’3, 260, Fowler (50 tackles, 10.5 for loss, 3.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles) is disruptive and one of the nation’s better pass rushers, despite the stats. It’ll be a shock if he doesn’t leave early for the NFL Draft after this year. Joining him at end will be junior Jonathan Bullard, another former five-star recruit like Fowler. Bullard (33 tackles, 2.5 for loss, 1.5 sacks) is a good run stopper who can slide inside on passing downs. He serves a role similar to what Mario Edwards, Jr., does for the Seminoles. The Gators have four-star recruits galore on the depth chart, but none with much experience and a few guys will need to step up to help out. Sophomore Alex McAlister has moved from LB and brings intriguing size (6’6, 250) and quickness to the position. Sophomores Bryan Cox, Jr., and Joey Ivie will get their shot too, with Cox having received rave reviews thus far. Redshirt frosh Jordan Sherit and true freshman Gerald Willis have a chance to make an impact too.

On paper, the defensive tackle spots are more worrisome. The Gators do return two experienced seniors in Leon Orr and Darious Cummings, but depth is young and untested. Orr (21 tackles, 4.5 for loss, 2.5 sacks) is big and athletic while Cummings (15 tackles, 3 for loss, 1 sack) has had his moments off the bench. They both are solid players. Redshirt freshmen Caleb Brantley and Jay-nard Bostick have potential but have not impressed in practice so don’t be surprised if true freshmen Thomas Holley and Khairi Clark see significant reps right away. Holley and Clark add beef and have big-time upside, but counting on true freshmen to log significant snaps at such an important position is dicey.

Linebackers: Ronald Powell has finally graduated, but the Gators still return a good starting group here. Youngsters need to step up to provide depth, just like along the line. And this group really needs the help of the line because this is not a big group size-wise and they don’t get off blocks very well. If the line takes on blockers, this unit is built to fly to the ball with bad intentions.

The starting trio will be senior SLB Neiron Ball, junior MLB Antonio Morrison, and sophomore WLB Jarrad Davis. Ball (25 tackles, 1.5 for loss) provides good size, but isn’t going to wow anyone. Morrison and Davis are the “stars” of the group, although both need to improve over last year. Morrison (56 tackles) was limited to eight games and had a bit of a sophomore slump after a breakout freshman campaign, but he is an everydown player who can play either MLB or WLB. Ditto for Davis (24 tackles, 2 for loss), who won a starting job toward the end of his freshman year and has serious upside. Senior Michael Taylor (62 tackles, 3.5 for loss), who can also play either MLB or WLB (they are essentially mirror images in Muschamp’s system), plays a lot of snaps off the bench and actually led the team in tackles last year.

Depth beyond Taylor will be made up of mostly sophomores and freshmen. The coaching staff expects sophomores Jeremi Powell, Daniel McMillan, and Alex Anzalone all to play a bigger role this year after getting their feet wet last season. Redshirt frosh Matt Rolin has a shot too, although he had surgery on his knee twice last year so he might still be getting up to speed.

Secondary: Cornerbacks Loucheiz Purifoy and Marcus Roberson and safeties Cody Riggs and Jaylen Watkins are gone so this unit is going to be bad, right? Maybe not. True, the Gators are pretty young here (only two upperclassmen on the entire roster), but they have a lot of talent and athleticism in this unit. A lot of the players have potential more than have proven anything on Saturday, but I would bet this ends up being one of the SEC’s best secondaries.

FSU has Jalen Ramsey, UF has Vernon Hargreaves III. It isn’t often that a hyped true freshman comes in and exceeds expectations, but that is the case with both guys and Hargreaves is arguably the best CB in all of college football as a true sophomore. Hargreaves (38 tackles, 11 pass breakups, 3 ints) will shut down one side of the field. Who will join him? Redshirt freshman Nick Washington has been in the system for two years now, but true freshmen Duke Dawson and Jalen Tabor (a five-star recruit like Hargreaves) are the top candidates battling for the job, with Dawson holding a slight edge. Junior Brian Poole (32 tackles, 2 for loss, 3 pass breakups, 2 ints) is back as the nickel back. In my estimation, Poole is a bit of a liability in coverage, but he provides good size and experience if nothing else.

Senior Jabari Gorman (48 tackles, 2.5 for loss, 7 pass breakups) returns, but he has been passed by the youth movement as well, with sophomores Keanu Neal and Marcus Maye (16 tackles, 1 int) penciled in as starters. As you would expect with underclassmen that have passed an upperclassman by, they have serious potential. Redshirt freshman Marcell Harris is on hand to provide depth.

Special Teams: Perhaps just as puzzling as Florida’s loss to Georgia Southern was Kyle Christy going from one of the best punters in the country to losing his job. Christy (39.6 average) has looked better this offseason, but Johnny Townsend (42 avg) is there to play if needed. The kicker job is up for grabs and no one has separated themselves thus far. Sophomore Austin Hardin (4 of 12 FGs), senior Justin Velez (6 of 8 FGs), Virginia Tech transfer Brooks Abbott, and true frosh Jorge Powell are all in the mix. The graduated Solomon Patton was a good kick returner, but you would assume with the athleticism on this team someone would step up.

Schedule: We have it beaten in our head that SEC schedules are brutal, just because of conference play, but this is actually fairly manageable. For a team in dire need of a confidence boost, the opening three games (Idaho, Eastern Michigan, Kentucky) are pretty much what you would want. A road trip to Alabama follows, but starting 3-1 a year after going 4-8 will be cause for celebration. The rest of the schedule is manageable with just one tough road game (at FSU) and the neutral site game with Georgia, along with home dates against LSU and South Carolina.

Overall: Florida has become a trendy pick to be one of the “surprise” teams of 2014. Many are tabbing them as the SEC East champ and I’ve seen more than a few people say they are one of the five teams no one is talking about that could make the college football playoff. That might all sound crazy coming off a 4-8 season, but I think only the blindest person would say that the team last year wasn’t as bad, overall, as the record indicated. Was the offense terrible? You bet. But the defense wasn’t 4-8 bad and to think this year’s team is going to limp to a similar finish seems a bit stupid.

Here’s why: under Muschamp, the Gators will always have a top 10 or 20 defense. He’s a great defensive coordinator and they’ve recruited well on that side of the ball. The question is the offense. In 2012 the offense did just enough to win…or just enough to not mess up the defense. In 2013 the offense was bad enough to lose games almost by themselves. It is hard to imagine the 2014 offense will be as bad unless injuries mount up. Roper’s offense is simple and probably suits Driskel’s skill set better. Sure, the receivers are largely unproven and the offensive line isn’t overwhelmingly good, but even a top 50 offense (maybe even top 75) combined with this defense and with this schedule can win 7 or 8 games. If the offense exceeds expectations, Florida could even shoot for 9 wins.

This is a make or break year for Muschamp and I think he lucked out with the schedule. I’m not convinced Roper is quite the offensive genius that some preseason articles are making him out to be, but, frankly, he doesn’t need to be. Right now, I’d say UF goes 8-4 overall, 5-3 in the SEC.