North Carolina State Wolfpack
2013 Record: 3-9 (0-8 ACC)
OFFENSE
Scheme: When Dave Doeren was hired to replace Tom O’Brien, part of the reason was due to Doeren’s success at Northern Illinois, but part was surely the up-tempo, high scoring spread offense he engineered with the Huskies. After years of somewhat stale and inconsistent offenses under O’Brien, administrators certainly hoped Doeren and OC Matt Canada, who had stops at Wisconsin and NIU, could liven things up. However, a lack of talent, injuries, players not recruited for this system, and youth all combined to sabotage the offense last year. That being said, NC State saw some improvement in their running stats (although the passing game was weak) and some young guys showed promise so there is hope the offense can continue to move forward.
Scheme-wise, I think Doeren’s system is quite similar to Gus Malzahn’s in that the running game is a mixture of power, read option, and jet sweeps and the passing game is largely predicated on play action. And, as is all the rage, the Wolfpack want to play as fast as possible.
Quarterbacks: It is rare when a team loses two quarterbacks, but feels as if they’ve improved at the position. That is the case with NC State this year. Pete Thomas, who wasn’t a fit for the system, transferred and Brandon Thomas, who was a good fit but struggled with injuries and inconsistency, graduated so the unquestioned starter this year is former Florida transfer Jacoby Brissett, a junior. Brissett played as a true freshman at Florida, but once he lost the starting job to Jeff Driskel as a sophomore he decided to leave. While running the scout team last year, it was obvious to most around the program that Brissett was the best QB on the roster.
Brissett only threw 74 passes in two years at Florida so it isn’t as if he has a lot of experience, but he has the size, arm strength, tools, and smarts to at least be solid. He isn’t a scrambler, but he has good enough running ability to at least be a threat on option plays. Junior Garrett Leatham and true freshman Jalan McClendon will be vying for the backup job, but coaches and fans hope they only see these guys in mop-up duty as Brissett is clearly the most talented on the roster.
Running Backs: The Wolfpack have struggled to run the ball well for years now, but they improved a bit last year and are hoping to just have a reliable, consistent threat. The hope is that with last year’s top three rushers returning and a few talented youngsters being added to the mix that this is the year production ramps up.
Junior Shadrach Thornton is the leading returning rusher, but he is serving an indefinite suspension for multiple off-field incidents. Most expect Thornton (768 yards, 4.7 average, 4 TDs, 16 receptions) to be reinstated, but there is a solid chance he’ll at least miss a game or two as punishment. If he does return, he’ll be the starter due to his size, speed, and athleticism but he needs to be more consistent and productive. Sophomore Matt Dayes (252 yds, 4 avg, 4 TDs) and senior Tony Creecy (125 yds, 3 avg, TD, 13 receptions) will likely be the other main competitors for starter minutes but neither have Thornton’s talent. Dayes is more of a power back while Creecy is a third-down back. Redshirt freshman Dakwa Nichols and true freshman Jaylen Samuels will compete for the backup job, with Nichols the more explosive and Samuels the more powerful.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: NC State loses three guys who caught at least 20 passes last year, but this unit has some good depth and some nice young talent. The key guy, though, is senior Bryan Underwood, an explosive player who was lost to an injury late in the year. If he can get back to form, Underwood (32 receptions, 382 yds, TD, 135 rushing yds) is a perfect fit for this system in the slot, equally adept at catching passes or gaining big yards on jet sweeps. He is likely the most talented player on the offense other than Brissett.
NC State has a nice trio of sophomores too in Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jumichael Ramos, and Bra’Lon Cherry. Valdes-Scantling (22 recs, 281 yds) and Ramos (24 recs, 352 yds) both have nice size and can cause trouble on the outside. Cherry (8 recs) only got his feet wet last year, but the coaches like his potential. Johnathan Alston is another sophomore to watch, but don’t be surprised if true freshmen Bo Hines and Stephen Louis see the field. Hines enrolled early and did nothing but impress in the spring. He will likely be one of the first guys off the bench at worst.
The tight end has been phased out a bit in this offense except to block, but sophomore David Grinnage (14 recs, 131 yds) does provide a big receiving option at 6’5, 270. True freshman Cole Cook is the only other tight end (and is more of a pure receiving option) on the roster so clearly this spot is being de-emphasized, either on purpose or out of necessity due to lack of numbers.
Offensive Line: NC State lost starting LG Duran Christophe, who had 30 career starts, but they return six guys who have started a game and have also recruited pretty well here, with a few underclassmen who look pretty promising. This still isn’t a great offensive line, but the starting five could be pretty good.
The Wolfpack look pretty set at tackle with seniors Tyson Chandler and Rob Crisp and junior Joe Thuney back. Crisp was granted a sixth-year after missing most of 2013 with concussion issues. If he can go, Crisp is a 6’7, 300 pound former five star recruit with 13 career starts. He hasn’t lived up to his recruiting billing, but he can provide a solid blind side protector. Chandler is a massive (6’7, 350) road grader at RT. He has plenty of experience (23 career starts) but, as you would guess with his size, can struggle in pass protection. Thuney started 12 games last year and could start at LT or be a solid backup at either spot. Senior Andy Jomantas has one career start and provides depth, but don’t be surprised if talented redshirt freshmen Tyler Reagan and Patrick Roane pass him by.
The interior is a bit more muddled. Junior Quinton Schooley is back at center and has 12 career starts. He is smart and fundamentally sound, but won’t wow anyone with his athleticism or strength. Junior Alex Barr has 12 career starts as well and is entrenched at RG. Much like Schooley, he is solid, if unspectacular. The LG spot is up for grabs and no clear leader has emerged. Senior Ali Kassem could move over from RG, where he is the current backup, or true freshman Terronne Prescod could get a shot. It also wouldn’t be a surprise if one of the young tackles slides inside for a year.
DEFENSE
Scheme: Doeren hired Dave Huxtable as the DC last year, just one year after Huxtable took the same job at Pitt. At both Pitt in 2012 and NC State last year, Huxtable ran a 4-3 that was a bend but don’t break style. However, this year changes are afoot after the Wolfpack were gashed on the ground and finished 11th in the ACC with just 20 sacks. The Pack are switching to a 4-2-5 for several reasons. One is to try to get more athleticism and aggressiveness. A second, and perhaps more important reason, is that NC State has a serious lack of experience on the roster at linebacker. And, third, the Wolfpack do have at least strength in numbers in the secondary, although the unit was fairly mediocre last year. Expect to see a bit more variety in terms of blitzing and coverages used this year.
Defensive Line: On paper this is the most talented unit on probably the entire roster and especially on defense. However, this unit has underachieved and has been inconsistent. The defensive tackles were gashed in the run game and the ends did not provide enough of a pass rush. The coaches are hoping a year of experience as well as an influx of talented freshmen will boost this unit.
NC State looks best set at defensive end. Senior Art Norman (30 tackles, 9 for loss, 4.5 sacks) is the team’s best pure pass rusher but clearly needs to improve his numbers. Junior Mike Rose (14 tackles, 4 for loss, 2 sacks) showed some flashes as a backup last year and will start opposite Norman. He has the size to help the run defense out. Sophomore Drew Davis (15 tackles, 3 for loss) will likely be Norman’s backup and has potential but could easily be passed up by redshirt freshman Pharoah McKever, a bit of a tweener who has yet to find a home but has undeniable athleticism. The coaches are really excited about four star true freshmen Kentavius Street and Justin Jones. Street (6’2, 260) and Jones (6’3, 275) have the size to challenge Rose for a starting job on the strongside. At minimum, both will be used in specific packages and situations and can provide some depth.
Defensive tackle is more of a concern. Senior Thomas Teal (28 tackles, 10.5 for loss, 3 sacks) is a talented, disruptive player but struggles with consistency. Classmate T.Y. McGill (20 tackles, 5 for loss, 2 sacks) can be a playmaker, but also needs to be more consistent. Sophomore Monty Nelson (20 tackles, 7 for loss) provides girth but can’t be pushed around as much as he was last year. All three had their moments last year, but need to do a better job from play to play, series to series. Depth is shaky with redshirt freshman Kenton Gibbs and true freshman Deshaywn Middleton the only other guys on the roster. Don’t be surprised if some of the bigger ends move inside on passing downs.
Linebackers: It is smart to shift to a 4-2-5 if for nothing else because after the graduation of Robert Caldwell and D.J. Green, who combined for over 110 tackles and 20 tackles for loss, the Pack are pretty light on options here. Senior Brandon Pittman (62 tackles, 8 for loss, 3 sacks) is a sure-fire starter. He is a bit undersized at just 218 pounds, but can make plays with his quickness. As of now, senior Rodman Noel (17 tackles) and junior M.J. Salahuddin (25 tackles, 2 for loss) are the other options to start. Both are career backups who are being counted on due to their experience. In terms of sheer talent, redshirt freshmen Jerod Fernandez and Artemis Robinson are probably better options, but both are clearly inexperienced and Robinson is undersized at just 210 pounds. The Pack have three true freshmen on the roster, but I don’t think any of them see the field unless injuries occur.
Secondary: This is a young group that was a bit of a mixed bag last year. The Wolfpack prevented big plays in most games but they didn’t create many plays themselves. If the pass rush improves even a little, this could be a decent unit, but they are still quite young.
The undeniable stars of the unit are juniors Juston Burris and Hakim Jones. Burris (54 tackles, 6 pass breakups, 1 int) is the team’s best cover corner while Jones (46 tackles, 8 pass breakups, 2 ints) is a two-year starter who is a very solid safety.
Beyond those two, the unit has potential but is full of questions. At safety, junior Tim Buckley (20 tackles) is likely to start and has pretty good skills but won’t wow anyone. Senior Jarvis Byrd (14 tackles, 1.5 for loss, 2 forced fumbles) was limited to six games last year due to injury and was granted a sixth year. Byrd has been oft-injured throughout his career and if he can just provide depth that would help. Sophomore Dravious Wright appeared in 11 games last year and redshirt frosh Josh Jones has nice size, but many expect true freshman Germaine Pratt, a four star recruit, to start at the hybrid LB/S spot from day one. Blessed with good size and athleticism, Pratt is instantly one of the most talented guys in the back seven.
Outside of Burris, the corners don’t inspire a ton of confidence, but NC State has strength in numbers if nothing else. Sophomore Jack Tocho (21 tackles, 3 pass breakups, 2 ints) is the best bet for the other starting CB spot and has good size and playmaking ability. He needs to clean up his fundamentals, but has definite potential. Classmate Niles Clark appeared in seven games last year and should be the nickel back. Don’t be surprised if true freshman Troy Vincent, Jr., gets a long look in August to provide depth.
Special Teams: Senior kicker Niklas Sade (19 of 23 FGs, 31 of 31 PATs) is one of the country’s better kickers and could push for postseason honors. He has gotten progressively better every year. Senior punter Wil Baumann (42.1 average) is solid. The Wolfpack will miss Rashard Smith, who was a good kick returner and an outstanding punt returner, taking two back for touchdowns. The coverage units were pretty abysmal last year and need to improve.
Schedule: Coming off a 3-9 season any schedule could be hard, but this looks pretty manageable. The nonconference schedule (GA Southern, Old Dominion, at USF, Presbyterian) is a joke and a half. ACC play starts off with FSU and Clemson in back to back weeks and NC State has tough road games against Louisville and rival North Carolina, but the schedule is by no means daunting. The Wolfpack should certainly be 4-0 heading into conference play.
Overall: Tom O’Brien took NC State to three straight bowl games before being fired, but he definitely left the cupboard pretty bare for Doeren and his staff. People could have criticized Doeren and Canada for trying to fit square pegs in round holes last year and not tweaking their offense. Oddly enough, though, the offense was actually doing okay until injuries hit. That being said, the fact that Brissett instantly becomes the best player on the entire roster shows the overall lack of talent on this team. Let’s be frank: this is not a good team. They are young, don’t have a lot of talent or depth, and lack difference-makers. But give Doeren credit for bringing in two decent recruiting classes to try to replenish the roster.
NC State is an interesting case because they haven’t won an ACC title since 1979 and have only won 10 or more games in a season once. Ever. However, people around the program seem to think they should be competing for titles. To be fair, I guess no one hopes to be mediocre but I honestly think mediocrity (i.e., 6-6 to 8-4 annually) is about as good as it gets for the Wolfpack for two reasons. One, they aren’t going to be as good as Clemson and FSU on an annual basis. They just aren’t. Two, they are getting outrecruited by North Carolina in the state and are currently being upstaged by Duke (and maybe even East Carolina). Unless NCSU starts to reel in the top players in their home state (which will be hard because other teams in the South recruit the top players in the state too), they are going to struggle to do better than mid-tier bowl games, at best.
That is long-term, though. As for this year, NCSU has a schedule built for success, but I also think this is a pretty average team in terms of overall talent (and I’m not sold on Doeren yet either). The combo of manageable schedule, but average talent can still mean a middling bowl game thanks to a 6-6 record and that would be progress. If Brissett just plays smart and the defense gets some production from the young guys, I think NC State can eke out a 6-6 record. If those things don’t happen (or a boatload of injuries occur) then the Wolfpack are likely looking at a 4 or 5 win season. Either way, I think Pack fans need to be patient as it will likely take another recruiting class or two to get them back in the mix.