Now that we are less than two months away from the start of the season, I figured I would start doing my annual sneak preview of our opponents. Off we go….

Oklahoma State Cowboys
2013 Record: 10-3 (7-2 Big 12)

OFFENSE

Scheme: After losing Todd Monken to the head coaching gig at Southern Miss at the end of the 2012 season, head coach Mike Gundy surprised everyone by hiring Mike Yurcich, who was the OC at Shippensburg of Division II. Yurcich’s offenses at Shippensburg were annually some of the best, but the transition to FBS was rocky. The Cowboys struggled in the opener versus Mississippi State and the Big 12 opener against West Virginia was an error-plagued upset loss to a team that wouldn’t win another game. However, as the season wore on, Okie State began to crank out the yards and points, averaging 39 points per game in the final nine contests. Yurcich runs a spread offense that is predicated on the pass, but the Cowboys achieved good balance last year, averaging 277 passing yards per game and 172 rushing yards per game.

Quarterbacks: This position was a bit of a revolving door last year. Clint Chelf was the better passer and started the opener against Mississippi State, but was benched before halftime with just 11 passing yards. J.W. Walsh led the Cowboys to a win over MSU and started the next 5 games, but struggled against TCU and Chelf took over and never relinquished the job. Chelf is gone now so the job is Walsh’s to lose. The rub, though, is that Walsh (1333 yards, 60%, 9 TDs, 5 interceptions, 304 yds rushing [sacks removed], 5.6 average, 3 TDs) is a better runner than passer. Last season, Yurcich had to tweak the offense to feature more read option elements when Walsh was in and that will likely continue this year. So, Walsh isn’t the ideal fit for Yurcich’s preferred style of offense, but it is hard to imagine anyone else taking the job unless Walsh is injured or just abysmal. The backups are junior Dax Garman, a former Arizona transfer who has never seen the field, and four star true freshman Mason Rudolph, who many Cowboy fans expect to see playing time at some point, if not eventually start.

Running Backs: Beyond Walsh, another reason Yurcich may tweak his offense is the talent returning to this position. Jeremy Smith graduated and took nearly 500 rushing yards with him, but OSU returns talented senior Desmond Roland and sophomore Rennie Childs and adds JC transfer Tyreek Hill to the mix.

Roland (811 yds, 4.6 avg, 13 TDs) is a powerful, between the tackles runner who will move the pile and chains. Ditto for Childs (189 yds, 4.6 avg, 1 TD), who is a bit smaller than Roland but is also more of a power back. The real x-factor is Hill, who was considered by many to be the top junior college recruit in the country. A guy who can be equally dangerous as a runner or receiver and has absolutely blazing speed, expect to see Hill utilized in a variety of ways. When they need one, OSU has a great blocking back in junior Jeremy Seaton.

Wide Receivers: Sure, the Cowboys lost Josh Stewart, Tracy Moore, and Charlie Moore and those guys combined for 136 receptions, but the nice thing about having had pass-first attacks for the past several years is that the Cowboys do not lack depth at WR. In fact, they have four guys returning who combined for 90 receptions so this unit will likely be good despite losing some star power.

The key returnees are juniors Brandon Sheperd and David Glidden and sophomores Jhajuan Sheales and Marcell Ateman. Seales (39 receptions, 535 yds, 3 TDs), Sheperd (14 recs, 223 yds, TD) and Ateman (22 recs, 276 yds) are all guys who bring good size to the table and should flourish on the outside. Glidden (15 recs, 173 yds) is the prototypical slot receiver, with good quickness and hands.

The coaches seem quite excited about some guys who either did not play last year or made limited contributions. Sophomores Austin Hays and C.J. Curry, junior Blake Webb, and redshirt freshman Ra’Shaad Samples are all expected to add depth and contribute. There are a lot of people in front of him, but talented four star true freshman Keenen Brown will get his chance to crack the rotation as well.

Offensive Line: This unit was decimated by injuries last year, with 10 different players earning at least one start. Four of those players graduated, but OSU still returns 6 players who have started a game. That being said, this unit is still a worry area and even more so since long-time OL coach Joe Wickline, considered one of the best in the business, left to become the OC at Texas. Gundy again went out on a limb, hiring journeyman Bob Connelly, who has coached all over the college ranks but spent 2013 as a high school assistant. Connelly will be tasked with fixing a problem OSU has had for several years—converting in short-yardage situations and eliminating tackles for loss on run plays.

There are probably only two sure-thing starters: senior RT Daniel Koenig, who has 22 career starts, and senior LG Chris Grisbhy, who has 9. The rest of the jobs are up for grabs. Either senior Brandon Garrett, who has 3 career starts, or sophomore Devin Davis, who has 2, will start at LT. Garrett has the experience edge; Davis has more talent and upside. The RG spot is a battle between two sophomores, Zac Veatch and Paul Lewis, both of whom started once last season. They are near identical players and this one is really a toss-up. The Cowboys lack experience or depth at C, where redshirt frosh Jaxon Salinas is the only true pivot man on the roster. The loser of the Veatch/Lewis battle may start at center, and Veatch was actually atop the post-spring depth chart at C. Redshirt freshman Jack Kurzu is a jack of all trades type who could push Salinas if needed.

DEFENSE

Scheme: Last year was Glenn Spencer’s first year as the DC at OSU and he promised to be aggressive. If you think that means blitzing, you’d be wrong, as the Cowboys almost always rushed four on passing downs. That being said, Spencer’s unit did create a lot of negative plays in the running game and finished 7th in third down defense. It was hard to run on OSU on standard running downs and hard to pass on them on third down. And yet OSU finished just 52nd in total defense, although a more telling stat may be that they finished 19th in scoring defense at 21.6 PPG. Spencer utilizes a 4-2-5 system that looks like a 4-3 thanks to a hybrid LB/nickel back.

Defensive Line: This unit was strong against the run, but did not create much of a pass rush last year. Two of the key cogs from last year’s unit are gone, but the line should be the strength of the defense.

Defensive end looks to be deeper and the strongest individual unit on the defense. Junior Jimmy Bean (28 tackles, 10 for loss, 5 sacks) is the best pass rusher of the unit. Sophomore Emmanuel Ogbah (18 tackles, 5.5 for loss, 4 sacks) is built to play the run at 6-4, 270, but is a decent pass rusher as well. Senior Sam Wren (16 tackles, 2.5 for loss) is a bit of a tweener, but has good experience. Junior Trace Clark appeared in 13 games last year, but he is strictly a sub. OSU signed three defensive ends in their recruiting class, but on paper none of them look physically ready to play just yet.

Defensive tackle has more bodies, but OSU basically played two guys last year and one of them graduated so this is a worry spot. The key returner is senior James Castleman. A run stuffer and space eater, Castleman (29 tackles, 5 for loss, 1 sack) needs to stay healthy for this line to survive. The battle to play with him is wide open. Senior Ofa Hautau played in 12 games last year, but made just 7 tackles. He was atop the post-spring depth chart but most around the program figure redshirt freshmen Ben Hughes and Vincent Taylor, both high three star recruits, will pass Hautau by at some point. Hughes is a space eater like Castleman while Taylor has nice athleticism but still goes 290 pounds. Further depth will be provided by sophomore Eric Davis and redshirt frosh Vili Leveni.

Linebackers: And here is the worry position. The Cowboys essentially rotated four players in the two traditional LB spots last season and three of them are gone. Those three combined for 22 tackles for loss and 7 interceptions and that kind of production is hard to replace. To make matters worse, sophomore Dominic Ramacher, who was expected to add depth at minimum, announced a few weeks ago he was giving up football because he had lost his passion for the game. Including true freshmen, that leaves 7 scholarship players on the roster. Sure, that is enough to man two spots but OSU will be relying on a lot of guys who haven’t seen much, if any, playing time to log quality minutes.

The one for-sure guy is MLB Ryan Simmons. One of the quartet to play last year, Simmons (58 tackles, 9 for loss, 1 sack, 1 int) is a playmaker who will be solid. The Cowboys are banking on JC transfer Devante Averette to step into other spot from day one. The coaches are desperately hoping that junior Kris Catlin (11 tackles) and sophomore Seth Jacobs, a four star recruit, provide quality depth. The only other options are sophomore Demarcus Sherod, who missed last season, and true freshmen Gyasi Akem and Josh Mabin. Although he is a bit undersized, many OSU bloggers expect Akem to push for playing time once summer practices start.

Secondary: If it wasn’t for the uncertainly at LB, this unit would be perhaps the question mark of the entire team. The top five tacklers from the secondary are all gone, including Justin Gilbert, one of the country’s top cover CBs. The Cowboys return some good pieces at CB, but the safety spots are a concern.

At corner, the Pokes return juniors Ashton Lumpkin, Kevin Peterson, and Miketavius Jones, who all appeared in at least 12 games last year. Lumpkin (21 tackles) has nice size, Peterson (21 tackles, 3 for loss, 2 ints., 4 pass breakups) is a playmaker, and Jones (13 tackles) has good athleticism. They should be fine as a trio. Depth is iffy, although the Cowboys have redshirt freshmen Darius Curry and Taylor Lewis to throw into the fray if necessary. Most likely, though, those guys won’t see significant time unless there is an injury or it’s a blowout.

Safety is the real sore spot. OSU at least has some guys with experience at FS in senior Larry Stephens and sophomore Jordan Sterns. Stephens was a contributor in 2012 but missed last season. Sterns (11 tackles) was the top backup last year. Jerel Morrow was a top recruit in 2013 that redshirted last year and might push both guys aside, although the coaches have faith in Stephens. The SS spot is a battle between sophomore Deric Robertson, who appeared in just 8 games last year, and redshirt frosh Tre Flowers. The hybrid LB/nickel back spot will be go to either senior Josh Furman, a transfer from Michigan who used the grad student rule, or JC transfer D’Nerius Antoine. Furman is the early leader, but he only played in 8 games last year as a Wolverine so he isn’t exactly inducing any calm.

Special Teams: The special teams were a definite mixed bag last year. The good news was the fact that Justin Gilbert and Josh Stewart were very good return men, but they are gone now so this unit is shaky, at best, on paper. Punter Kip Smith averaged just 39.6 yards per punt and the coverage unit was not very good. Kicker Ben Grogan made just 11 of 18 field goals (and was 2 of 5 from 40+) and needs to improve. The return units are a question mark, although Tyreek Hill’s speed and athleticism could be useful here.

Schedule: Wow, this is not easy. OSU returns the fewest returning lettermen of any FBS team. So, starting the season with the defending national champion with a roster of NFL talent does not bode well. The rest of the beginning of the schedule isn’t too bad. The end? Brutal. The final six games are at TCU, hosting West Virginia, at Kansas State, hosting Texas, at Baylor, and at Oklahoma. Granted, WVU should be a win, but TCU is expected to bounce back from a bad 2013 and the final four are just rough. The Cowboys could easily end the season on a four game losing streak.

Overall: OSU lost some key pieces and parts on offense (Chelf, Smith, Stewart, All Big 12 RG Parker Graham) but you can look at the offensive depth chart and figure this unit could be good. Yurcich proved adept at tweaking his offense for Walsh last year, OSU has three nice options at RB, and has plenty of bodies at WR. The offensive line is worrisome, but the Cowboys should cobble together a good starting five. Injuries could kill the OL, but that is true at most schools.

The defense is what should concern Cowboys fans. The line returns most of the key contributors, although they are breaking in mostly new guys at DT. The back seven is the real concern as OSU is counting on JC transfers, redshirt freshmen, and upperclassmen who haven’t logged a lot of significant playing time at LB and safety. Simmons is a keeper at MLB and the trio at CB is fine, but the rest of the unit is not inspiring. And that is before you even mention the schedule. A legit top 25 team could easily lose four games with this schedule. You have to think OSU will struggle to win those last four road games and the opener versus FSU.

This team might be better than the record indicates, but that will be little consolation to fans of a program that Mike Gundy has had on firm ground for years. Once Gundy was hired and T. Boone Pickens started throwing money around, OSU has consistently won 8-10 games per year. However, this looks like the year the Cowboys could falter to a 7-5 regular season. I could see 8-4, but that would mean beating TCU or KSU on the road (assuming losses to FSU, Baylor, and Oklahoma) and defeating Texas Tech and Texas at home. Doable, but tough.