Florida State Rush Offense vs Duke Rush Defense
Florida State has run the ball well this season averaging 204.75 yards per game. That is despite the fact that they haven’t leaned on the run game like was predicted before the season started due to the emergence of Jameis Winston at quarterback. The Seminole rushing attack is averaging 5.70 yards per carry, which is 9th in the nation. According to S&P+ advanced statistics, the Noles have the 11th best rushing attack in the nation.
The Noles are led on the ground by a trio of running backs that each bring a little something different to the table. First Team All-ACC running back Devonta Freeman is the leader on the ground with 852 yards on a very solid 5.92 yards per carry average. Freeman has good speed and quickness that combines with excellent vision and patience. James Wilder Jr. is the bruiser of the bunch that loves contact. Wilder has 517 yards on the year with a 7.08 yards per carry average. The wildcard is Karlos Williams, a converted defensive back who burst on the scene and has sprinters speed combined with great size that gives him big play potential. Williams has 650 yards on the season with an impressive 8.23 yards per carry average. The offensive line, which features First Team All-ACC members Cameron Erving, Tre Jackson, and Bryan Strork, has done a good job opening the holes for the backs and have been very disciplined in their play thus far.
Florida State is facing a Duke defense that ranks 91st against the run according to S&P+. The Duke defense gives up 170.00 yards per game on the ground, 72nd in the nation, and 4.08 yards per carry, 54th in the nation. Duke is led in tackles by a couple of good linebackers David Helton and Kelby Brown that have decent size at 235 and 230 pounds respectively. Safety Jeremy Cash is an excellent player at safety and is second on the team in tackles with 109. Brown and Cash are two of three Duke defenders that were named to the All-ACC First Team Defense. The Duke front four is a little undersized averaging just 275 pounds along the line with just one player among the two deep tipping the scales at 300+ pounds. Defensive Ends Kenny Anunike and Justin Foxx are active along the line leading the front four in tackles and tackles for loss.
This is an vastly improved Duke defense from a year ago. However, it is still a defense that Florida State should not have trouble running the ball against. In particular, the matchups in the middle with Florida State’s guards and tackles going against Duke’s interior line seem to really favor the Noles. I expect the Noles to be able to rush for at 6.0 yards per carry against the Blue Devils.
Advantage: FSU
Florida State Pass Offense vs Duke Pass Defense
Duke had one of the worst pass defenses in the nation last season and have made a remarkable jump in 2013. S&P+ ranks the Blue Devil pass defense as the 66th best in the nation. They give up 225.2 yards per game through the air and 6.9 yards per attempt, 56th and 52nd in the nation respectively. Their pass efficiency defense is 120.35, good for 41st in the country. They are largely a man-to-man defense led by two First Team All-ACC defensive backs in corner Ross Cockrell and safety Jeremy Cash. As a team, the Blue Devils have 16 interceptions on the year, 17th most in the nation. Cash leads the team with 4 picks. Duke doesn’t get after the quarterback all that well with just 22 sacks on the year. The two starting defensive ends, Anunike and Foxx have almost half of those between them with 10. Non-defensive lineman only have accounted for 4 sacks all season.
It should be pretty obvious by now, the Seminoles have an advantage when looking at the FSU receivers verses the opponent secondary in every game. This is the true against the Duke secondary, too. The FSU trio of Rashad Greene, Kenny Shaw, and Kelvin Benjamin could have a huge day as Duke has a propensity of giving up big yards to good passing teams. All three receivers have 838+ yards and all three are within striking distance of 1,00 yards. Quarterback Jamies Winston, the ACC Player of the Year, leads the nation in passing effeciency, is second in yards per attempt, and third in touchdowns. He’s also 11th in the nation averaging 290.8 yards per game, despite sitting out much of the second half in numerous games this season.
Overall, the Florida State passing attack has put up fantastic numbers. The Seminoles rank 2nd in passing efficiency at 179.47 and 3rd in yards per attempt at 10.3. They also rank 14th completing 66.4% of passes and 14th throwing for 321.3 yards per game. Football Outsiders S&P+ ranks the Seminole passing attack as the best in the nation.
Duke has some good players in the secondary and, much like in the run defense, has made great strides from 2012 to 2013. However, when facing teams with good passing attacks, they’ve been shreaded giving up 424 yards to Pitt, 379 yards to Miami, and 362 yards to Troy. The only teams they’ve held to under 200 yards passing are NC Central, Memphis, Georgia Tech, Navy, and Wake Forest – a collection of option teams and the worst passing teams in the nation. The Noles should have no problems in the passing game.
Advantage: FSU
Duke Rush Offense vs Florida State Rush Defense
One the things often mentioned with Duke’s improvement this season their physical play. While no one will mistake Duke for Alabama or Wisconsin along the line, their running game has improved in 2013. The Blue Devils average 179.92 yards per game on the ground and 4.54 yards per carry. Both of those numbers rank in the top half of FBS teams in 2013. It has been a year of running by committee, and not just at the running back position. Running backs Jela Duncan and Josh Snead have 546 and 530 yards rushing on the year. Quarterback carries are a large part of the offense two with Brandon Connette and Anthony Boone combining for 521 yards on the ground. While both equally successful on a per carry average, Connette gets the lions share of the carries at quarterback and leads the team with 13 rushing touchdowns. While both quarterbacks run and throw, Duke tends to run the ball at higher frequency with Connette and throw with greater frequency when Boone is in the game.
Florida State’s run defense has been excellent this year after a bit of a underwhelming start. Statistically, they are 7th in the nation giving up 3.13 yards per carry and 13th in the nation giving up 118.00 yards per game. In S&P+ advanced stats, the Nole rush defense checks in at 8th best. Florida State has largely dominated the spread teams they have faced this year, which is more what Duke is geared to in the run game. They are able to control the line of scrimmage with an excellent defensive front and give the offense multiple looks between the 2 linebacker and 5 defensive backs in the base set. Run fits at the line can come from anywhere and the offense often has trouble with blocking assignments. The speed on the defense gives a lot of teams trouble as well.
Duke should have trouble running on the Noles defense. Virginia Tech, the closest statistically rated team to Florida State defensively that Duke has faced, held the Blue Devils to 91 yards on just 3.25 carries. In addition, Memphis, Georgia Tech, Navy, NC State, and Wake Forest were able to hold Duke under 4.0 yards per carry. I would be surprised if Duke is able to gain much more than the average against FSU and think the Blue Devils will manage somewhere near 3.5 yards per carry.
Advantage: FSU
Duke Pass Offense vs Florida State Pass Defense
Duke has the 34th best passing attack in the nation according to S&P+ advanced stats. That is a little more generous than raw stats would suggest as Duke comes in averaging a 55th best 242.3 yards per game and 46th best 7.6 yard per attempt average. The two headed Duke quarterback spot does average a respectable 40th in the nation in passing efficiency with 139.77 rating. Speaking of that two headed quarterback. Anthony Boone is the starter on the depth chart and has the most pass attempts of the two quarterbacks, but both he and Brandon Connette have thrown 144+ passes for 1,200+ yards each. Boone has the better completion percentage of the two, but Connette has more touchdowns and a higher yards per attempt average. Whomever is the quarterback though, they have one main target – First Team All-ACC WR Jamison Crowder. Crowder has nearly 40% of the receiving yards for Duke with 1,131 yards on 88 catches. Crowder is a small receiver at just 5’9″ 175 lbs, but has excellent hands and runs good routes. His size becomes a bit of a disadvantage, though, when matched up against good physical corners. He has struggled in games against Virginia Tech, Miami, and North Carolina.
The Florida State pass defense has been one of the best in the nation. They rank 1st in the nation in passing yards surrendered at 153.0 per game, 1st in yards per attempt at 5.1, and 2nd in passing efficiency defense at 93.53. The S&P+ ranks Florida State’s pass defense as the 4th best in the nation. Their strength lies in the secondary where they have a cupboard full of big, athletic defensive backs that can play multiple roles and positions. Ronald Darby’s name has been almost nonexistent this year, and as a CB that’s a good thing. Teams are simply avoiding him as his 8 tackles and few pass defenses show. FSU also boasts Thorpe Award finalist Lamarcus Joyner at cornerback. Joyner gives teams problems lining up in the slot, with his threat of pressure off the edge in addition to being an excellent cover man. Terrance Brooks, Jalen Ramsey, PJ Williams, and Nate Andrews round out a secondary that has played excellent all year.
Duke might find some success against FSU in the pass game in short routes, but their inability to stretch the field much will enable the Noles to be very aggressive and physical with the Duke receivers.
Advantage: FSU
Score Prediction: FSU 52-13