3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

• A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
• B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

Bowling Green  vs  #14 Northern Illinois – Friday, 12/6 8:00 pm EST, ESPN

Reference the above automatic qualifier stipulation to see why this is an important game. Northern Illinois is only team that has a shot to earn an automatic BCS bowl bid out of this group. There last hurdle is the MAC Championship Game against Bowling Green.  Northern Illinois is a solid team led by “Heisman Trophy Candidate” Jordan Lynch, a player that Florida State fans are quite familiar with. To be blunt, however, they have no business being a BCS Bowl team.  They haven’t played a team that can even sniff a ranking and haven’t exactly blown out the teams they have played.  For reference, Northern Illinois gave up 35 points to Idaho and only won the game by 10.  Yes, that Idaho.  I may be guilty of being unfair or biased here, but root for Bowling Green. Either that or for UCF to dominate enough to jump the Huskies.

#17 Oklahoma  at  #6 Oklahoma State – Saturday, 12/7  12:00 pm EST, ABC

Oklahoma State can clinch a share of the Big12 title and, by virtue of the wins over Texas and Baylor, receive the automatic BCS Bowl bid for the conference.  This is a pretty even matchup on paper with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State possessing good, but not great offenses that are polar opposites.  The Cowboys rely on a strong passing game with a bit of run mixed in.  The Sooners live and die by the run game and can really struggle if the run game is shut down.  On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma State fares much better in advanced stats, but raw stats show the teams to be pretty equal on defense.  Ranking 13th in rush defense in S&P+, if the Cowboys can effectively control the Sooners run game, Oklahoma State should come away victorious and headed to a BCS Bowl.

#16 UCF at SMU – Saturday, 12/7 12:00 pm EST, ESPN

Central Florida can wrap up the inaugural year of the AAC with a victory and secure a BCS Bowl.  UCF has a solid resume and gave South Carolina all they could handle early in the year, but they have tempted fate a bit in the last few weeks with close one score wins against Houston, Temple, and South Florida.  What will be interesting to watch in this game, aside from UCF actually winning, is if the Knights are able to dominate the game enough to garner votes that put them ahead of Northern Illinois in the BCS Standings.  If they’re able to do so, than it opens up another BCS At-Large selection.  If not, than Northern Illinois crashes the BCS party again this season with a win. Both teams struggle on defense, but Central Florida has a very good offense led by quarterback Blake Bortles.

#3 Auburn vs  #5 Missouri – Saturday, 12/7  4:00 pm EST,  CBS

The SEC Championship features two very unlikely participants.  After going 0-8 in SEC play last year, no one could have predicted the turn around under Gus Malzhan this season.  It hasn’t been utter domination by Auburn, though.  They’ve needed to squeek out one score victories against 6-6 Washington State, 6-6 Mississippi State, 7-5 Ole Miss, and 8-4 Texas A&M.  In addition, they’ve needed a miracle finish against 8-4 Georgia and an insane ending to upset Alabama. That’s not to say Malzhan’s team isn’t good.  They have an excellent rushing game that is among the best in the nation and an improved defense that has played just well enough.  Missouri has already won the SEC East in just their second year in the league, something not many people would have predicted.  That is partly due to them having a very good football team and partly due to a nice schedule that allowed them to avoid Alabama, LSU, and Auburn.  Missouri is good on both sides of the ball.  They have an excellent defensive front and rank among the Top 20 defenses in the nation according to S&P+.  On offense they have have two huge and hugely talanted wide receivers in Dorial Green-Beckham and L’Damian Washington and a dynamic quarterback in James Franklin.  The winner here will be doing some scoreboard watching later on Saturday as a Ohio State (or Florida State) loss will put them in the National Championship game.

#25 Texas  at  #9 Baylor – Saturday, 12/7  3:30 pm EST, FOX

If Oklahoma pulls the upset earlier in the day, than this becomes the de facto Big12 Championship game for the right to a BCS Bowl.  On the other hand, if Oklahoma State avoids the upset, this is just a consolation game for a better Bowl bid.  Baylor has been a big story this year.  Led by an eye popping offense that has led the nation all year in points per game and yards per game, Baylor had itself in the National Championship discussion before being blown out two weeks ago by Oklahoma State.  Texas on the other hand, has resurrected it’s season after a disastrous start.  The Longhorns started out 1-2 with big defeats to BYU and Ole Miss. Then they were only able to just get by Kansas State and Iowa State, with a controversial victory over the Cyclones.  A big victory over rival Oklahoma seemed to jumpstart the season and Texas has won 5 of their last 6 games.  While the turnaround has been impressive, this is still not exactly a good Texas team.  They rank in the 60s in defense and 40 in offense in S&P+ rankings, needed overtime to beat a bad West Virginia team, and were routed by Oklahoma State.

#10 Michigan State  at  #2 Ohio State – Saturday, 12/7  8:00 pm EST,  FOX

All eyes will be on Indianapolis Saturday night (except of course for ACC eyes) as SEC fans hope for an upset of Ohio State fans and the rest of the country hopes for Ohio State win to keep the SEC locked out of the National Championship.  It’s an interesting matchup of strength on strength and weakness on weakness.  Michigan State has one of the top defenses in the nation, ranked 3rd in S&P+, and in particular a very strong run defense that allows just 64.75 yards per game and a nations best 2.23 yards per carry.  Ohio State has one of the top offenses in the nation, ranking 3rd in S&P+, and has a very strong run game that goes for 321.25 yards per game and a nations best 7.05 yards per carry.  On the other side of the ball, Michigan State has struggled to score, averaging under 30 points per game and Ohio State has had difficulty stopping teams.  Just last week, Ohio State allowed 603 yards and 41 points to a bad Michigan offense that had averaged under 400 yards per game.  Michigan State’s best shot is to keep this as low scoring as possible and try to pound the ball with a decent run game to shorten the game and keep the Ohio State offense on the sidelines.