Florida State Rush Offense vs Wake Forest Rush Defense
Florida State has been held to under 150 yards just once this season. Florida State has eclipsed the 200 yard mark three times and average 209.75 yards per game on the ground. This Seminoles rank 15th in yards per carry at 5.49 YPC. Overall, the FSU run game has been very good this season and ranks as the 12th best rushing attack in the S&P+ advanced statistics.
The Noles are led on the ground by a trio of running backs that each bring a little something different to the table. Devonta Freeman is the leader on the ground with 639 yards on an very good 5.8 yards per carry average. Freeman has good speed and quickness that combines with excellent vision and patience. James Wilder Jr. is the power back of the three and does a good job pushing the pile forward in short yardage situations. Wilder has 268 yards on the year and provides a tough inside runner. Karlos Williams has sprinters speed combined with great size that gives him big play potential. Williams has 395 yards on the season with a 8.1 yards per carry average. The offensive line has done a very good job opening the holes for the backs and have been very disciplined in their play thus far. The job of Chad Abrams and Nick O’Leary should also be commended. Not really known as a reliable blocker before, O’Leary has shown great improvement on the edge this year and become a very well rounded tight end.
Wake Forest is decent against the run, rating as the 42nd rushing defense in the nation according to S&P+. They give up 152.89 yards per game and 3.97 yards per carry, both rank 54th in the nation. They are led by nose guard Nikita Whitlock, who despite being very undersized at 5’11″ 250 lbs is simply a “football playing son-of-a-gun” according to FSU Coach Jimbo Fisher. His great instincts, good technique, and tenacity allow him to make plays. He ranks 3rd on the Wake defense with 60 tackles and has an amazing 14 tackles for loss, 5th best in the nation. Whitlock anchors the 3-4 defense that Wake Forest runs and when he’s not making plays takes on blocks to free up leading tackler Brandon Chubb to make tackles from his middle linebacker spot. Strong safety Ryan Janvion also features prominently in the defense playing closer to the line of scrimmage.
While run defense is certainly the strength of the Demon Deacon unit, they will have a tough time slowing down the running attack of the Seminoles. I would fully expect the Noles to match their per carry average of 5.4 yards in this contest.
Advantage: FSU
Florida State Pass Offense vs Wake Forest Pass Defense
Until is proven otherwise, Florida State will have an advantage in the air in every matchup. As is the case with almost every team that Florida State goes up against, the Seminoles have an advantage when looking at the FSU receivers verses the Wake Forest secondary. The FSU trio of Rashad Greene, Kenny Shaw, and Kelvin Benjamin is arguably the top trio of wide receivers in the nation. They should have another good day and tight end Nick O’Leary has really established himself as another excellent target for Jameis Winston. Winston has been remarkable this season and has solidified himself as a valid Heisman candidate halfway into his first season.
Overall, the Florida State passing attack has put up fantastic numbers. The Seminoles rank 3rd in passing efficiency at 190.12 and 2nd in yards per attempt at 11.3. They are 9th in yards per game with 339.4. Football Outsiders S&P+ ranks the Seminole passing attack as the 2nd best in the nation.
Wake Forest is 52nd in the nation against the pass in S&P+ rankings. They give up just 215.7 yards per game, good for 35th in the nation and 6.3 yards per attempt, 22nd in the nation. Wake has a couple of good corners in Merrill Noel and Kevin Johnson, both with 3 interceptions on the season. They also possess two good pass rushers in Nikita Whitlock, who has 7 sacks on the year, and defensive end Zach Thompson, who has 5 sacks on the year. Wake Forest is susceptible against strong passing teams, however. Against Clemson, a comparable quality passing attack to Florida State, Wake surrendered 407 yards.
I’ll just be honest here, there are few teams in the nation that can handle the Florida State passing attack when they’re not making mistakes. There are so many weapons and different features of the Florida State passing attack that I can’t see Wake Forest having success against the Noles air attack.
Advantage: FSU
Wake Forest Rush Offense vs Florida State Rush Defense
Wake Forest has…struggled running the ball this season. They average a 8th worst in the nation 89.67 yards per game on the ground and 2.85 yards per carry. S&P+ ranks them 123 out of 125 in rushing offense. Josh Harris has had some success in the past, but is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this year. Harris has just 302 yards and no other running back on the team has more than 84 yards for the season. Quarterback Tanner Price is 2nd on the team in rushing with 148 yards. However, he has gained 313 yards on the season before accounting for sacks, etc. Wake has tried to incorporate some more of their misdirection/zone read offense from years past, but with very little success.
Florida State has done a very good job against the run since giving up 200 yards against Boston College. In those games they have settled more on a 4-2-5 formation with Christian Jones at the defensive end spot and have done much less substituting and experimentation with players in different roles. The game last weekend against Miami saw the Noles occasionally go to the bigger lineups against Miami’s offensive line, but they have stuck with the nickel look more often than not over the past month.
The Noles give up 3.41 yards per carry, 19th best in the nation and are rated the 16th best rush defense by S&P+. The Noles have the ability to stop the run and talent along the defensive line to win the line of scrimmage in most games they play. They are surrendering 129.13 yards per game, 25th best in the country.
FSU should absolutely dominate the Wake Forest rushing attack in this game.
Advantage: FSU
Wake Forest Pass Offense vs Florida State Pass Defense
Florida State has the number one pass defense in the nation according to S&P+. The raw numbers do a lot to support that notion, too. Florida State is 2nd the nation in passing yards per game giving up just 158.5 yards through the air. They’re 3rd in the nation in yards per pass attempt at only 5.4 yards and 5th in the nation in pass efficiency defense at 100.53. Those excellent numbers are thanks to a deep and ultra talented secondary that is also very versatile. This has been particularly evident the last several weeks at Clemson and against Miami as Florida State consistently showed different looks in the defensive backfield mixing up coverages and bringing pressure from the edges.
Wake Forest’s pass offense might have just gone from bad to worse. Despite already being ranked as the 94th passing attack in the nation, the Demon Deacons just lost their best offensive player in wide receiver Michael Campanaro. How much did Campanaro mean to the Wake Forest passing attack? He had 67 catches on the year – 52 more catches than the next highest receiver had. He had 802 receiving yards on the season – 591 yards more than the next highest receiver. Wake averages just 224.1 yards per game and completes just 56.1% of their passes. They average just 6.1 yards per attempt.
I can’t see any way that Wake Forest establishes any sort of passing game against the Noles.
Advantage: FSU
Score Prediction: FSU 59-0