Florida State Rush Offense vs Maryland Rush Defense

Florida State has had a lot of success early this season running the ball ranking 4th in the country with a 6.52 yards per carry average.  Devonta Freeman has established himself as a reliable runner averaging 80.5 yards a game on a very impressive 8.7 yards per carry.   Karlos Williams has become the second most productive player in the Seminole backfield with 215 yards on the ground with a strong 9.3 yards per carry average.  James Wilder Jr. continues to get tough yards for the Noles, too.  The offensive line has been solid in opening holes and have allowed very few negative plays.  The OL has also been penalized on very few occasions this year, as well.  Despite a dreadful season in 2012, Maryland had a very strong defense that has carried over to 2013.  They are giving up just 2.88 yards per carry so far this season.  Maryland runs a base 3-4 and has a very large front seven with active linebackers that take up the top 4 spots in total tackles. Against a similarly talented Maryland defense last season, the Noles gained 237 yards on the ground at 5.8 yards per carry.  I don’t think Florida State will run the ball as much (41 times last season), so the total yards may not be as high, but I do think FSU will have similar results on a per carry average.

Advantage:  FSU

Florida State Pass Offense vs Maryland Pass Defense

Jameis Winston has continued his excellent play in leading the Florida State passing attack to the 3rd highest passer rating at 202.08 and yards per attempt at 11.4.  Remarkably, Florida State is completing a high percentage of passes, 71% good for 6th in the country, despite the higher yards per attempt which usually signals more lower percentage downfield passes.  Rashad Greene, Kenny Shaw, and Kelvin Benjamin have continued their outstanding play giving Winston plenty of targets to choose from.  FSU’s trio of receivers will be very hard for Maryland to defend, as both starting cornerbacks coming into the season will be out with injuries.  True Freshman CB Will Likely has stepped in and played admirably for the Terrapins, but he hasn’t faced the kind of talent he will on Saturday.   The key to the passing game for the Noles is keeping the pass rush off of Winston.  Maryland leads the nation in sacks with 17 with the majority coming from the linebacking corps.  The FSU offensive line has performed well overall, especially considering the number of longer routes FSU has run this year that take longer in the pocket.  The Maryland pass defense ranks in the Top 12 among most pass defense categories, but I don’t think they’ll have as easy a time facing a potent FSU passing attack.

Advantage: FSU

Maryland Rush Offense vs Florida State Rush Defense

Rush defense has been the subject of much consternation among Nole faithful.  After an inconsistent and at times awful performance against Boston College, that concern has only grown.  Florida State is giving up a pedestrian 3.65 yards per carry on the ground, almost a full yard more than a year ago.  The reasons for the struggles have been debated at length among FSU fans, but basics like tackling and gap discipline are the easiest and most important fixes going forward.  Maryland is 36th in the nation running for 5.12 yards per carry.  Most of the Terrapin success on the ground comes from the duo of running back Brandon Ross (83.0 YPG) and quarterback C.J. Brown (70.8 YPG).  Brown runs the spread option/zone read very well and is capable with the ball in his hands.  The wildcard to consider is playmaking wide receiver Stefon Diggs.  FSU has shown vulnerability to jet sweeps and outside rushes where they lose containment.  Diggs ability could take advantage of that.

Advantage: Maryland

Maryland Pass Offense vs Florida State Pass Defense

Maryland quarterback C.J. Brown has been very effective through the air this year throwing for 260 yards per game on a solid 66.7 completion percentage.  The Maryland attack is Top 10 in both passer rating and yards per attempt.  Brown has two very capable wide receivers to throw to in Stefon Diggs and Deon Long. Of the two, Diggs is the explosive big play man averaging an impressive 22.2 yards per catch and an even 100 yards per game.  Long actually has a few more catches on the season, but nearly half the yards as Diggs.  Between the two of them, Long and Diggs have 55% of the Terrapin receptions on the year.  The Florida State defense has been good in giving up a 4th best 136.0 yards through the air, but that stat has been largely effected by playing more ground based offenses so far this season.  When looking at passer rating defense and yards per attempt, the FSU pass defense isn’t quite as impressive, but still a solid top 25 defense.  The number of quality defensive backs that FSU can put up against the Maryland passing attack gives the edge to FSU in my mind, though the Noles must get pressure on C.J. Brown to avoid the big play potential of Diggs.  The FSU pass rush must be weary of Brown’s ability to scramble, too, and avoid undisciplined pass rush that allows for large seams to develop.

Advantage: FSU

Score Prediction: FSU 41-24