North Carolina State Wolfpack
2012 Record: 7-6 (4-4 ACC)

OFFENSE

Scheme: With new head coach Dave Doeren comes a new offensive system, one that FSU fans are somewhat familiar with since Doeren was hired from Northern Illinois. Although Doeren was gone by the time the Orange Bowl kicked off, what Seminole fans saw was a preview of what N.C. State will run. Just like what seems to be 75% of the college teams in America, the Wolfpack will use an up-tempo, zone-read system. Minus a few guys, the roster is not built for Doeren’s system so there will surely be growing pains.

Quarterbacks: Mike Glennon was surely frustrating to NC State fans. Blessed with all the physical tools, Glennon still had a penchant for making critical mistakes. That being said, he is in an NFL camp so it isn’t as if he was chopped liver. Although Glennon was not built for Doeren’s system, a guy in his mold is the leader for the QB job. Colorado State transfer Pete Thomas is a big pocket passer with limited mobility, but he started 21 games at CSU so he has experience. However, also like Glennon, Thomas showed a penchant for throwing interceptions, tossing 21 against 18 touchdowns in his career as a Ram. Thomas’ main competition is sophomore Manny Stocker, the little-used backup last year, and Arkansas transfer Brandon Mitchell. Stocker is a good all-around athlete and is the better fit for the offense on paper, but he struggled throughout spring and is still raw as a passer. Mitchell is also a good athlete, having played some WR for the Razorbacks, and has the best chance of supplanting Thomas.

Running Backs: NC State struggled to run the ball last season and Doeren and offensive coordinator Matt Canada will want to change that based on their preference for a strong running game. The top two rushers return, but neither are game-changers and that may lead the coaches to turn to a true freshman.

The two returners are junior Tony Creecy and sophomore Shadrach Thornton. Creecy (476 yards, 3.7 average, 5 TDs, 34 receptions) is strong and has good hands, but he doesn’t make much on his own and that could be a problem considering NC State will likely have an average offensive line. Thornton (694 yds, 4.5 avg, 3 TDs, 30 recs) is a good athlete, but has had off-field issues (he’s suspended for the first game) as well as a problem with fumbling, both last season and in the spring. In fact, his fumbling led to his demotion during spring ball. Don’t be surprised if incoming freshmen Joshua Mercer and Matt Dayes get a long look during summer practices.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: This is the best unit on the offense and is the one place where there may not be big issues with installing the new offense. That is largely because of senior Quintin Payton, junior Bryan Underwood, and senior Rashard Smith. Payton (51 recs, 798 yds, 2 TDs) is a big receiver who uses his size well. Underwood (44 recs, 620 yds, 10 TDs) is an excellent slot receiver due to his quickness, hands, and route running. Smith (19 recs, 315 yds, 5 TDs) had a nice debut after moving over from the secondary and should only improve with another year at receiver. Beyond sophomore Charlie Hegedus, who caught 9 passes last year, depth is unproven.

The Wolfpack lost Mario Carter at tight end, but senior Asa Watson (24 recs, 282 yds, TD) played a lot last year and is an excellent receiver. He’s undersized and not a great blocker though.

Offensive Line: NC State returns four guys with starting experience, but they also graduated four linemen who had combined for 137 starts. There are a few guys with talent, but this unit is going to be average overall.

The coaches hope that senior LT Rob Crisp, a former five-star recruit, finally lives up to his billing during his final season on campus. Crisp has the physical tools, but has only started 11 career games. If he just plays to a fraction of his presumed ability, that would be great. Junior RT Tyson Chandler started all 12 games last year and is a really good run blocker, but not very good in pass protection.

The inside jobs are the big worry spot because the four players who graduated all played guard or center. Senior LG Duran Christophe and his 18 career starts are back and he is a decent building block. He has struggled with injuries at times, but he is pretty solid when in the lineup. Sophomore Joe Thuney has the inside track to be the new center after playing in eight games last year. He seems like a natural leader. The RG spot is a battle between junior Cameron Fordham, who started his career as a tight end at LSU, and sophomore Alex Barr, a big guy who had a nice offseason. One player on the interior to keep an eye out for is true freshman Cole Blankenship, one of the top rated high school centers, who is already backing up Christophe.

DEFENSE

Scheme: This unit was very up and down last year. Beyond the Tennessee game, they played well during the early part of the season, but then struggled late. They were decent in pass defense, but struggled against the run. They were aggressive, but did not produce a lot of sacks or turnovers. New coordinator Dave Huxtable is keeping State’s 4-3 look, but it is anyone’s guess how aggressive he’ll be. His units at Pitt were stout against the run, but typically sat back and depended on the front four to create a pass rush.

Defensive Line: This will be the strength of the defense if for nothing else than experience. All four starters are back as well as three backups who played extensively. I would say the strength lies with junior tackles T.Y. McGill and Thomas Teal. McGill (39 tackles, 10.5 for loss, 5 sacks) has great natural ability and if he can improve his technique and conditioning, has a bright future. Teal (37 tackles, 10 for loss, 2 sacks) is a run-stuffer with power to spare. Senior A.J. Ferguson and sophomore Carlos Gray provide quality depth.

There are four good options at defensive end, although I think McGill and Teal are the top talents along the line. Senior Darryl Cato-Bishop (36 tackles, 10.5 for loss, 6.5 sacks) is a former tackle who is solid against the run and can provide a bit of a pass rush. The other starter will likely be undersized junior Art Norman. While nothing special against the run, Norman (33 tackles, 8 for loss, 5.5 sacks) was a spark as a situational pass rusher last year and will get the chance to start this year. If he falters, former Colorado transfer Forrest West is there to step in. Limited to six games due to injury last year, West had a solid career at Colorado and, at minimum, could provide nice depth. Sophomore Mike Rose is an intriguing backup to Cato-Bishop. A former safety and then OLB, Rose is a good athlete but is still learning the nuances of the position.

Linebackers: NC State lost two starters here and although Rickey Dowdy made a lot of big plays last year, most pundits think the Wolfpack have strength in numbers. NC State has a nice duo at SLB in senior D.J. Green and junior Rodman Noel. Green was suspended last year by the NCAA for taking a banned substance. He started seven games in 2011 and flashed nice instincts and range. Noel (38 tackles, 7 for loss) is a bit undersized, but he has good quickness. Still, he might be better as a situational player.

Junior Brandon Pittman is another undersized option, but the leader to start on the weakside. Pittman (43 tackles, 3.5 for loss, 2 sacks) is athletic and could be valuable as a blitzer and in coverage. The new starter in the middle will likely be sophomore M.J. Salahuddin, a safety in high school who is also undersized, but flashed good instincts and fundamentals in spring ball. Former walk-on Zach Gentry, who has played in 38 games, will provide experienced depth behind Salahuddin.

Secondary: Although guys like David Amerson did not live up to their hype, the reality is that NC State’s secondary was pretty good last year. However, three starters and one backup graduated so this unit is now a potential weak spot and is going to rely on a lot of underclassmen to start or provide depth.

The plus side is that NC State does return senior Dontae Johnson and sophomore Juston Burris at corner. Johnson (80 tackles, 4.5 for loss, 4 pass breakups) moved from safety last year and improved as the year wore on. With good size and athleticism, Johnson could be solid. Burris (43 tackles, 3 interceptions, 8 pass breakups) started five games last year and has a high ceiling. Redshirt freshman Niles Clark looked good in the spring and may have locked down the nickel corner job.

The safety spots are the worry area. Senior FS Jarvis Byrd was a four-star recruit, but he has battled injuries his entire career. If he stays healthy he could be quite good, but that is a big if. If he falters, the Wolfpack would likely turn to sophomore Josh Stanley, who wasn’t rated by recruiting services, or redshirt frosh J.J. Jones, who is better suited to play strong safety. Sophomore Hakim Jones (10 tackles) looks set to start at SS. A good athlete with great speed, Jones will surely make a few mistakes but has upside. Sophomore Tim Buckley, who transferred from Penn State last year, will be the backup.

Special Teams: All of the key components return here, but that isn’t necessarily a reason to celebrate. Kicker Niklas Sade made just 13 of 23 attempts last season. Punter Wil Baumann was a top recruit, but has failed to live up to the hype, averaging just 38 yards per punt thus far in his career. Rashard Smith took a punt back for a touchdown last year and is dangerous.

Schedule: This is a favorable schedule to say the least. NC State avoids all the good teams from the Coastal division except rival North Carolina. The only intimidating road game is at FSU and the nonconference schedule (LA Tech, Richmond, Central Michigan, East Carolina) is a joke and are all home games.

Overall: Tom O’Brien averaged an 8-5 record over the last three years, but it was not enough to avoid being fired. NC State hired Doeren, who went 23-4 at Northern Illinois, to take the program out of mediocrity. The only problem is, and no offense to Wolfpack fans, NC State is largely a mediocre program. With the exception of a few years here and there, NC State has typically won 6-8 games, gone to a mid-level bowl game, pulled an upset or two, and lost to someone they shouldn’t. Will Doeren change that? My guess is no. NC State simply cannot recruit better than FSU or Clemson year in and year out so, except for a few years here and there, finishing 3rd in the division might be as good as it gets. That holds true this season. The Wolfpack are pretty unimpressive except at WR, DL, and CB, but the schedule is such that a 7 or 8 win season is almost certain.